Objective information about retirement, financial planning and investments

 

Small Business Retirement Plans – SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

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One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement.  As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work.  You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).

Small Business Retirement Plans – SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

SEP-IRA Solo 401(k)
Who can contribute? Employer contributions only. Employer contributions and employee deferrals.
Employer contribution limits The maximum for 2020 is $57,000, this has been increased to $58,000 for 2021. Contributions are deductible as a business expense and are not required every year. For 2020, the employer plus employee combined contribution limit is a maximum of 25% of compensation up to the maximums are $57,000 and $63,500, respectively. These have been increased to $58,000 and $64,500 for 2021. Employer contributions are deductible as a business expense and are not required every year.
Employee contribution limits A SEP-IRA only allows employer contributions. Employees can contribute to an IRA (Traditional or Roth, based upon their individual circumstances). $19,500 for 2020 and 2021. An additional $6,500 catch-up contribution is available for participants 50 and over. In no case can this exceed 100% of their compensation.
Eligibility Typically, employees must be allowed to participate if they are over age 21, earn at least $600 annually, and have worked for the same employer in at least three of the past five years. No age or income restrictions. Business owners, partners and spouses working in the business. Common-law employees are not eligible.

Note the Solo 401(k) is also referred to as an Individual 401(k).

  • While a SEP-IRA can be used with employees in reality this can become an expensive proposition as you will need to contribute the same percentage for your employees as you defer for yourself. I generally consider this a plan for the self-employed.
  • Both plans allow for contributions up your tax filing date, including extensions for the prior tax year. Consult with your tax professional to determine when your employee contributions must be made. The Solo 401(k) plan must be established by the end of the calendar year.
  • The SEP-IRA contribution is calculated as a percentage of compensation. If your compensation is variable the amount that you can contribute year-to year will vary as well. Even if you have the cash to do so, your contribution will be limited by your income for a given year.
  • By contrast you can defer the lesser of $19,500 ($26,000 if 50 or over) or 100% of your income for 2020 and 2021 into a Solo 401(k) plus the profit sharing contribution. This might be the better alternative for those with plenty of cash and a variable income.
  • Loans are possible from Solo 401(k)s, but not with SEP-IRAs.
  • Roth feature is available for a Solo 401(k) if allowed by your plan document. There is no Roth feature for a SEP-IRA.
  • Both plans require minimal administrative work, though once the balance in your Solo 401(k) account tops $250,000, the level of annual government paperwork increases a bit.
  • Both plans can be opened at custodians such as Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, and others. For the Solo 401(k) you will generally use a prototype plan. If you want to contribute to a Roth account, for example, ensure that this is possible through the custodian you choose.
  • Investment options for both plans generally run the full gamut of typical investment options available at your custodian such as mutual funds, individual stocks, ETFs, bonds, closed-end funds, etc. There are some statutory restrictions so check with your custodian.
  • For those wishing to invest in alternative assets inside of their SEP or solo 401(k), a number of self-directed retirement plan custodians offer this option.

Both plans can offer a great way for you to save for retirement and to realize some tax savings in the process. Whether you go this route or with some other option I urge to start saving for your retirement today 

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit Flickr

4 Benefits of Portfolio Rebalancing

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The past couple of years have been a roller coaster ride in the stock market. The S&P 500 lost 4.38% in 2018 mostly from a poor fourth quarter performance. The market recovered nicely in 2019 with the index posting a 31.49% total return for the year. This trend seemed to be continuing into 2020, with the index hitting a record high in late February.

Then the markets felt the impact of COVID-19. By late March the index had plummeted over 33% from its all-time high reached only a month prior. Since then, however, the stock market has recovered nicely with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high yesterday.

The recovery in the markets has been an uneven one. Growth stocks have led the way, while value has largely lagged. Apple’s shares are up over 70% year-to-date, Amazon is up almost 78% and Microsoft is up over 36%.

With all of these gyrations among various asset classes over the past couple of years, you may be taking on more or less risk than is appropriate for your situation. If you haven’t done so recently, this is a good time to consider rebalancing your investments. Here are four benefits of portfolio rebalancing.

4 Benefits of Portfolio Rebalancing

Balancing risk and reward

Asset allocation is about balancing risk and reward. Invariably some asset classes will perform better than others. This can cause your portfolio to be skewed towards an allocation that takes too much risk or too little risk based on your financial objectives.

During robust periods in the stock market equities will outperform asset classes such as fixed income. Perhaps your target allocation was 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. A stock market rally might leave your portfolio at 75% stocks and 25% fixed income and cash. This is great if the market continues to rise but you would likely see a more pronounced decline in your portfolio should the market experience a sharp correction.

Portfolio rebalancing enforces a level of discipline

Rebalancing imposes a level of discipline in terms of selling a portion of your winners and putting that money back into asset classes that have underperformed.

This may seem counterintuitive but market leadership rotates over time. During the first decade of this century emerging markets equities were often among the top performing asset classes. Fast forward to today and their performance has been much more muted.

Rebalancing can help save investors from their own worst instincts. It is often tempting to let top performing holdings and asset classes run when the markets seem to keep going up. Investors heavy in large caps, especially those with heavy tech holdings, found out the risk of this approach when the Dot Com bubble burst in early 2000.

Ideally investors should have a written investment policy that outlines their target asset allocation with upper and lower percentage ranges. Violating these ranges should trigger a review for potential portfolio rebalancing.

A good reason to review your portfolio

When considering portfolio rebalancing investors should also incorporate a full review of their portfolio that includes a review of their individual holdings and the continued validity of their investment strategy. Some questions you should ask yourself:

  • Have individual stock holdings hit my growth target for that stock?
  • How do my mutual funds and ETFs stack up compared to their peers?
    • Relative performance?
    • Expense ratios?
    • Style consistency?
  • Have my mutual funds or ETFs experienced significant inflows or outflows of dollars?
  • Have there been any recent changes in the key personnel managing the fund?

These are some of the factors that financial advisors consider as they review client portfolios.

This type of review should be done at least annually and I generally suggest that investors review their allocation no more often than quarterly.

Helps you stay on track with your financial plan 

Investing success is not a goal unto itself but rather a tool to help ensure that you meet your financial goals and objectives. Regular readers of The Chicago Financial Planner know that I am a big proponent of having a financial plan in place.

A properly constructed financial plan will contain a target asset allocation and an investment strategy tied to your goals, your timeframe for the money and your risk tolerance. Periodic portfolio rebalancing is vital to maintaining an appropriate asset allocation that is in line with your financial plan.

The Bottom Line 

Regular portfolio rebalancing helps reduce downside investment risk and ensures that your investments are allocated in line with your financial plan. It also can help investors impose an important level of discipline on themselves.

How has the volatility in the stock market impacted your investments and your financial plan? Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if its right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring for the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

8 Portfolio Rebalancing Tips

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In light of the recent stock market volatility, it’s important to review your asset allocation and consider rebalancing your portfolio if needed. This post looks at some ways to implement a portfolio rebalancing strategy. Here are 8 portfolio rebalancing tips that you can use to help in this process.

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Set a target asset allocation 

Your asset allocation should be an outgrowth of a target asset allocation from your financial plan and/or a written investment policy. This is the target asset allocation that should be used when rebalancing your portfolio. 

Establish a time frame to rebalance 

Ideally you are reviewing your portfolio and your investments on a regular basis. As part of this process you should incorporate a review of your asset allocation at a set interval. This might be semi-annually for example. I generally suggest no more frequently than quarterly. An exception would be after a precipitous move up or down in the markets.

Take a total portfolio view 

When rebalancing your portfolio take a total portfolio view. This includes taxable accounts as well as retirement accounts like an IRA or your 401(k). This approach allows you to be strategic and tax-efficient when rebalancing and ensures that you are not taking too little or too much risk on an overall basis.

Incorporate new money 

If you have new money to invest take a look at your asset allocation first and use these funds to shore up portions of your asset allocation that may be below their target allocation. A twist on this is to direct new 401(k) contributions to one or two funds in order to get your overall asset allocation back in balance. In this case you will need to take any use of your plan’s auto rebalancing feature into account as well. 

Use auto pilot 

For those with an employer sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k), 403(b) or similar defined contribution plan many plans offer an auto-rebalancing feature. This allows you to select a time interval at which your account will be rebalanced back to the allocation that you select.

This serves two purposes. First it saves you from having to remember to do it. Second it takes the emotion and potential hesitation out of the decision to pare back on your winners and redistribute these funds to other holdings in your account.

I generally suggest using a six-month time frame and no more frequently than quarterly and no less than annually. Remember you can opt out or change the interval at any time you wish and you can rebalance your account between the set intervals if needed.

Make charitable contributions with appreciated assets 

If you are charitably inclined consider gifting shares of appreciated holdings in taxable accounts such as individual stocks, mutual funds and ETFs to charity as part of the rebalancing process. This allows you to forgo paying taxes on the capital gains and may provide a charitable tax deduction on the market value of the securities donated.

Most major custodians can help facilitate this and many charities are set-up to accept donations on this type. Make sure that you have held the security for at least a year and a day in order to get the maximum benefit if you able to itemize deductions. This is often associated with year-end planning but this is something that you can do at any point during the year.

Incorporate tax-loss harvesting

This is another tactic that is often associated with year-end planning but one that can be implemented throughout the year. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling holdings with an unrealized loss in order to realize that loss for tax purposes.

You might periodically look at holdings with an unrealized loss and sell some of them off as part of the rebalancing process. Note I only suggest taking a tax loss if makes sense from an investment standpoint, it is not a good idea to “let the tax tail wag the investment dog.”

Be sure that you are aware of and abide by the wash sale rules that pertain to realizing and deducting tax losses.

Don’t think you are smarter than the market 

It’s tough to sell winners and then invest that money back into portions of your portfolio that haven’t done as well. However, portfolio rebalancing is part of a disciplined investment process.  It can be tempting to let your winners run, but too much of this can skew your allocation too far in the direction of stocks and increase your downside risk.

If you think you can outsmart the market, trust me you can’t. How devastating can the impact of being wrong be? Just ask those who bought into the mantra “…it’s different this time…” before the Dot Com bubble burst or just before the stock market debacle of the last recession.

The Bottom Line 

Portfolio rebalancing is a key strategy to control the risk of your investment portfolio. It is important that you review your portfolio for potential rebalancing opportunities at set intervals and that you have the discipline to follow through and execute if needed. These 8 portfolio rebalancing tips can help.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

401(k) Fee Disclosure and the American Funds

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With the release and subsequent repeal of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rules for financial advisors dealing with client retirement accounts, much of the focus in recent years has been on the impact on advisors who provide advice to clients for their IRA accounts. Long before these rules were unveiled and then repealed, financial advisors serving 401(k) plan sponsors have had a fiduciary responsibility to act in the best interests of the plan’s participants under the DOL’s ERISA rules.

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Starting in 2012, retirement plan sponsors have been required to disclose the costs associated with the investment options offered in 401(k) plans annually.

As an illustration, here’s how the various share classes offered by the American Funds for retirement plans stack up under the portion of the required disclosures that deal with the costs and performance of the plan’s investment options.

American Funds EuroPacific Growth

The one American Funds option that I’ve used most over the years in 401(k) plans is the EuroPacific Growth fund.  This fund is a core large cap foreign stock fund.  It generally has some emerging markets holdings, but most of the fund is comprised of foreign equities from developed countries. The R6 share class is the least expensive of the retirement plan share classes. Let’s look at how the various share classes stack up in the disclosure format:

Share Class Ticker Expense Ratio Expenses per $1,000 invested Trailing 1-year return Trailing 3-year return Trailing 5-year return
R1 RERAX 1.60% $16.00 -8.63% 1.02% 0.98%
R2 RERBX 1.60% $16.00 -8.62% 1.03% 0.99%
R3 RERCX 1.14% $11.40 -8.19% 1.49% 1.45%
R4 REREX 0.84% $8.40 -7.92% 1.79% 1.75%
R5 RERFX 0.54% $5.40 -7.65% 2.10% 2.06%
R6 RERGX 0.49% $4.90 -7.60% 2.15% 2.11%

3-and 5-year returns are annualized.  Source:  Morningstar   Data as of 4/30/2020

While the chart above pertains only to the EuroPacific Growth fund, looking at the six retirement plan share classes for any of the American Funds products would offer similar relative results.   

The underlying portfolios and the management team are identical for each share class. The difference lies in the expense ratio of each share class.  This is driven by the 12b-1 fees associated with the different share classes. This fee is part of the expense ratio and is generally used all or in part to compensate the advisor on the plan.  In this case these advisors would generally be registered reps, brokers, and insurance agents. The 12b-1 fee can also revert to the plan to lower expenses. The 12b-1 fees by share class are:

R1                   1.00%

R2                   0.75%

R3                   0.50%

R4                   0.25%

R5 and R6 have no 12b-1 fees.

Growth of $10,000 invested

The real impact of expense differences can be seen by comparing the growth of $10,000 invested by a hypothetical investor on April 30, 2010 and held through April 30, 2020.

  • The $10,000 invested in the R1 shares would have grown to a value or $14,607.11.
  • The $10,000 invested in the R6 shares would have grown to a value of $15,321.34.

This is a difference of $1,714.23 or 11.7%. The portfolios of the two share classes of the fund are identical, the difference in performance is due to the difference in expenses for the two share classes. If you think of these as two retirement plan participants, one whose plan uses the R1 share class and the other whose plan uses the R6 share class, the first investor would have 11.7% less after ten years due to their plan sponsor’s choice regarding which fund share class to offer.

This analysis assumes a one-time investment of $10,000 and the reinvestment of all distributions. Morningstar’s Advisor Workstation was used to perform this analysis.

Share classes matter

The R1 and R2 shares have traditionally been used in plans where the 12b-1 fees are used to compensate a financial salesperson. This is fine as long as that salesperson is providing a real service for their compensation and is not just being paid to place the business.

If you are a plan participant and you notice that your plan has one or more American Funds choices in the R1 or R2 share classes in my opinion you probably have a lousy plan due to the extremely high expenses charged by these share classes. It is incumbent upon you to ask your employer if the plan can move to lower cost shares or even a different provider. The R3 shares are a bit of an improvement but still quite pricey for a retirement plan in my opinion.

To be clear, I’m generally a fan of the American Funds. Overall however, their funds tend to offer a large number of share classes between their retirement, non-retirement and 529 plan shares. While the overall portfolios are generally the same, it’s critical for investors and retirement plan sponsors to understand the differing expense structures and the impact they have on potential returns.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit:  Flickr

New Money Market Rules – How Will They Impact You?

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Update 3/22/2020 – This past week the Federal Reserve saw fit to prop-up money market funds in the wake of the economic turmoil from the coronavirus. Its important for investors to understand the rules surrounding any money market fund in which you hold money, either in your own account or within an employer-sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k). The original post below was posted on July 30, 2014.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently passed new rules governing money market funds. These rules are designed to combat liquidity problems should the economy experience another period of crisis such as in 2008. Here are a few items from these new money market rules that might impact you.  You might also check out this excellent piece by Morningstar’s John Reckenthaler.

Floating NAV – Institutional Money Market Funds 

For institutional money market funds the stable $1 net asset value (NAV) per share will be gone. The NAV of these funds will be priced out to four decimal places and will be allowed to float.  Your shares may be worth more or less than what you paid for them upon redemption.

Again this applies to institutional money market funds. Retail money market funds, defined as funds owned by natural persons, along with government and Treasury-based money funds will retain their stable $1 NAV. From what I have been told, money market funds owned by participants within a 401(k) or similar retirement plan are considered to be retail funds as well. I’m not quite as sure with regard to an institutional share class money market fund held by an individual investor.

Liquidity Fees and Redemption Gates 

Both retail money market funds, again excluding funds investing in government and Treasury instruments and institutional funds, will be subject to liquidity fees and redemption gates (restrictions) under certain circumstances.

  • If liquid assets fall below 30%, a fund’s board may impose a 2% fee on redemptions.  This is at their discretion.
  • If liquid assets fall below 10%, a fund’s board must impose a 1% fee on redemptions.  This fee is mandatory under the new rules.
  • If liquid assets fall below 30%, a fund’s board may suspend redemptions from the fund for up to 10 days. 

How will these new money market rules impact you? 

Money market funds will have two years from the date the final SEC rules appear in the Federal Register to be in compliance with the floating NAV, liquidity fee, and redemption gate rules.

According to Benefits Pro:

“Nearly $3 trillion is invested in money-market funds. As of July 3, 2014, more than $800 billion was held in the institutional money-market funds affected by today’s reforms, according to the SEC.” 

Among the main users of institutional money market funds would be pension plans, foundations, and endowments. They will be the ones directly impacted by the change to a floating rate NAV; however the beneficiaries of these funds will ultimately be impacted should this change have a negative impact on the underlying portfolio.

The liquidity fees and redemption gates will directly impact individual investors.

A 1% or 2% fee on redemptions would be quite a hit to your balance, especially if viewed in terms of today’s interest rates on money market funds in the range of 0.01%.

The ability to delay redemptions up to 10 days could also have an impact especially if you had written a check off of that account to pay your mortgage or some other bill.

The true test will be if we experience the extreme conditions like those that marked the 2008-09 economic downturn. None the less as an investor it would behoove you to ask your bank, custodian, or financial advisor how these changes might impact any money market funds you hold and also if it makes sense to switch to another cash option.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit: NoONBRAND on Unsplash

Five Things to do During a Stock Market Correction

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The impact of the coronavirus on the stock market and our economy has been devastating. The major stock market indexes are off 25% or more. This has impacted the investments of all investors. Those nearing or in retirement are really feeling the pinch in many cases. Delays or cancellations of events and the closure of many businesses will have an impact on the lives of many people as well. Nobody can predict how long this will all last. Regardless, here are five things you should do during a stock market correction.

Do nothing

Assuming that you have a financial plan with an investment strategy in place there is really nothing to do at this point. Ideally you’ve been rebalancing your portfolio along the way and your asset allocation is largely in line with your plan and your risk tolerance.  You should continue to monitor your portfolio and make these types of adjustments as needed. Making moves in reaction to a stock market correction (official or otherwise) is rarely a good idea.  At the very least wait until the dust settles.  As Aaron Rodgers told the fans in Green Bay after the Packers bad start in 2016, relax. They went on to win their division before losing in the NFC title game.  Sound advice for fans of the greatest team on the planet and investors as well.

Review your mutual fund holdings

I always look at rough market periods as a good time to take a look at the various mutual funds and ETFs in a portfolio. What I’m looking for is how did they hold up compared to their peers during the market downturn. For example during the 2008-2009 market debacle I looked at funds to see how they did in both the down market of 2008 and the up market of 2009. If a fund did worse than the majority of its peers in 2008 I would expect to see better than average performance in the up market of 2009. If there was under performance during both periods to me this was a huge red flag.

Don’t get caught up in the media hype

If you watch CNBC long enough you will find some expert to support just about any opinion about the stock market during any type of market situation. This can be especially dangerous for investors who might already feel a sense of fear when the markets are tanking.  I’m not discounting the great information the media provides, but you need to take much of this with a grain of salt. This is a good time to lean on your financial plan and your investment strategy and use these tools as a guide.

Focus on risk

Use stock market corrections and downturns to assess your portfolio’s risk and more importantly your risk tolerance. Assess whether your portfolio has held up in line with your expectations. If not perhaps you are taking more risk than you had planned.  Also assess your feelings about your portfolio’s performance. If you find yourself feeling unduly fearful about what is going on perhaps it is time to revisit your allocation and your financial plan once things settle down.

Look for bargains

If you had your eye on a particular stock, ETF, or mutual fund before the market dropped perhaps this is the time to make an investment. I don’t advocate market timing but buying a good long-term investment is even more attractive when it’s on sale so to speak.

Markets will always correct at some point.  Smart investors factor this into their plans and don’t overreact. Be a smart investor.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo by Austin Distel on Unsplash

4 Things To Do When The Stock Market Drops

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Update February 24, 2020 approximately 6:00 p.m. – the market closed today with the Dow losing almost 1,032 points or 3.6%. This was the third time in history that the index declined 1,000 or more points in a single day. This is the worst single day loss for the index in both points and percentage decline since February 8, 2018. The S&P 500 lost about 3.4% today. For both indexes today’s losses erased their gains for 2020 to date.

This morning as I update this, the stock market is appears poised to take a hit prior to the open. The Dow’s pre-market implied open is down over 730 points. This seems to be largely due to fears about the possible spread of the Coronavirus from China. Of course nobody knows where the market is headed. What should you do now? Here are 4 things to do when the stock market drops.

4 Things to do When the Stock Market Drops

Breathe 

Cable news networks like CNBC have a field day during steep, sudden stock market corrections like we will likely see today. It’s easy to get caught up in all of this hype. Don’t let yourself be sucked in.

Step back, take a deep breath and relax.

Take stock of where you are 

Review your accounts and assess the extent of the damage that has been done. Investors who are well-diversified may be hurt but generally not to the extent of those who highly allocated to stocks.

Review your asset allocation 

With the tremendous year for stocks in 2019 and so far in 2020, many investors are likely still in a good position. If you haven’t done so recently, then perhaps it is time to review your asset allocation and make some adjustments. Proper diversification is great way to reduce investment risk. This is a good time to rebalance your portfolio back to your target asset allocation if needed as well.

Go shopping 

Market declines can create buying opportunities. If you have some individual stocks, ETFs or mutual funds on your “wish list” this is the time to start looking at them with an eye towards buying at some point. It is unrealistic to assume you will be able to buy at the very bottom so don’t worry about that.


Before making any investment be sure that it fits your strategy and your financial plan. Also make sure the investment is still a solid long-term holding and that it is not cheap for reasons other than general market conditions.

The Bottom Line 

Steep and sudden stock market declines can be unnerving. Don’t panic and don’t let yourself get caught up in all of the media hype. Stick to your plan, review your holdings and make some adjustments if needed. Nobody knows where the markets are headed but those who make investment decisions driven by fear usually regret it.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if its right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring regarding the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

The Super Bowl and Your Investments

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Lombardi Trophy - Super Bowl XXXIUpdate: The Chiefs won, time to sell everything. Just kidding, thankfully this indicator has been wrong for the past four years, hopefully this will continue for a fifth straight year.

It’s Super Bowl time and once again my beloved Packers are not playing for the for the ninth consecutive year. They did have a great season improving to 13-3 from 6-9-1 in 2018. The good news is that I was able to attend four regular season games at football’s holy shrine, Lambeau Field, plus see them win a playoff game as well.

Every year the Super Bowl Indicator is resurrected as a forecasting tool for the stock market.

The indicator says that a win by a team from the old pre-merger NFL is bullish for the stock market, while a win by a team from the old AFL is a bad sign for the markets. Looking at this year’s game, Kansas City is an original AFL team while San Francisco is an original NFL team, clearly investors should be rooting for the 49ers.

How has the Super Bowl Indicator done?

In 2019 this indicator failed to predict the direction of the stock market for the fourth year in row. New England won the 2019 game and the market had an up year. The Eagles won the 2018 game and it was a down year for the markets. Overall the indicator has held true for 40 of the 53 prior Super Bowls.

Quoted in a Wall Street Journal article before the 2016 game, respected Wall Street analyst Robert Stoval said, “There is no intellectual backing for this sort of thing, except that it works.”

Some notable misses for the indicator include:

  • St. Louis (an old NFL team that was formerly and is now again currently the L.A. Rams) won in 2000 and the market dropped.
  • Baltimore (an old NFL team that was formerly the original Cleveland Browns) won in 2001 and the market dropped. Perhaps the markets were confused since the Browns became an AFC team (along with the Steelers and the Colts) as part of the 1970 merger.
  • The New York Giants (an old NFL team) won in 2008 and the market tanked in what was the start of the recent financial crisis.
  • In 1970 the Kansas City Chiefs shocked the Minnesota Vikings and the Dow Jones Average ended the year up, by less than 5 percent.

Is this a valid investment strategy?

As far as your investments, I think you’ll agree that the outcome of the game should not dictate your strategy. Rather I suggest an investment strategy that incorporates some basic blocking and tackling:

  • financial plan should be the basis of your strategy. Any investment strategy that does not incorporate your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance is flawed.
  • Take stock of where you are. What impact has the bull market of the past ten + years had on your portfolio? Perhaps it’s time to rebalance and to rethink your ongoing asset allocation.
  • Costs matter.  Low cost index mutual funds and ETFs can be great core holdings. Solid, well-managed active funds can also contribute to a well-diversified portfolio. In all cases make sure you are in the lowest cost share classes available to you.

View all accounts as part of a total portfolio. This means IRAs, your 401(k), taxable accounts, mutual funds, individual stocks and bonds, etc. Each individual holding should serve a purpose in terms of your overall strategy.

The Super Bowl Indicator is another fun piece of Super Bowl hype. Your investment strategy should be guided by your goals, your time horizon for the money and your tolerance for risk, not the outcome of a football game.

Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Concerned about stock market volatility? Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit:  Flickr

How Much Apple Stock Do You Really Own?

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Apple (AAPL) stock has been a great investment over the years. Based upon its stock price and the number of shares outstanding it is the largest U.S stock based upon market capitalization. This means it is the largest holding in many popular index mutual funds and ETFs. This can lead to significant stock overlap in your portfolio if you aren’t aware of the underlying holdings in the funds and ETFs you own.

Chuck Jaffe wrote an excellent piece for Market Watch several years ago discussing the impact that a significant drop in Apple stock had on a number of mutual funds that hold large amounts of Apple. He cited a list of funds that had at least 10% of their assets in Apple.  On a day when Apple stock fell over 4% these funds had single day losses ranging from 0.22% to 2.66%.

The point is not to criticize mutual fund managers for holding large amounts of Apple, but rather as a reminder to investors to understand what they actually own when reviewing their mutual funds and ETFs.

Major price gains

Apple stock gained over 88% in 2019 and has an average annual gain in excess of 32% for the 15-years ending December 31, 2019. For index funds and ETFs whose holdings are market-cap weighted, these types of gains mean that the percentage of the fund in Apple stock has increased as well.

Percentage of Apple stock in major funds and ETFs

A number of index ETFs and mutual funds counted Apple as a significant holding as of December 31, 2019. The following percentage of assets for each fund are from Morningstar.

  • ishares Russell 1000 Growth ETF 8.53%
  • Vanguard Growth Index Investor 8.17%
  • Fidelity Growth Company 5.98%
  • SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust 4.57%
  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 4.57%
  • Fidelity 500 Index 4.34%
  • Vanguard 500 Index Investor 4.32%

In addition, it is also a dominant holding in several tech-related index funds, including:

  • Technology Select Sector SPDR® ETF 19.72%
  • Vanguard Information Technology ETF 17.53%
  • Invesco QQQ Trust 11.51%

Stock overlap 

In the late 1990s a client had me do a review of their portfolio as part of some work I was doing for the executives of the company. He held 19 different mutual funds and was certain that he was well-diversified.

The reality was that all 19 funds had similar investment styles and all 19 held some of the popular tech stocks of the day including Cisco, Intel and Microsoft. As this was right before the DOT COM bubble burst in early 2000 his portfolio would have taken quite a hit during the market decline of 2000-2002.

This type of situation could easily be the case today with stocks in companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent), Facebook and others. Tools like Morningstar can help investors look under the hood of various ETFs and mutul funds to gauge the amount of stock overlap across their portfolio.  (The prior link is an affiliate link. I may receive compensation if you purchase their service at no extra cost to you)

Understand what you own 

If you invest in individual stocks you do this by choice. You know what you own. If you have a concentrated position in one or more stocks this is transparent to you.

Those who invest in mutual funds, ETFs and other professionally managed investment vehicles need to look at the underlying holdings of their funds. Excessive stock overlap among holdings can occur if your portfolio is concentrated in one or two asset classes. This is another reason why your portfolio should be diversified among several asset classes based upon your time horizon and risk tolerance.

As an extreme example, someone who works for a major corporation might own shares of their own company stock in some of the mutual funds and ETFs they own both inside their 401(k) plan and outside. In addition, they might directly own shares of company stock within their 401(k) and they might have stock options and own additional shares elsewhere. This can place the investor in a risky position should their company hit a downturn that causes the stock price to drop. Even worse if they are let go by the company not only has their portfolio suffered but they are without a paycheck from their employer as well.

The Bottom Line 

Mutual fund and ETF investors may hold more of large market capitalization stocks like Apple and Microsoft than they realize due to their prominence not only in large cap index funds but also in many actively managed funds. It is a good idea for investors to periodically review what their funds and ETFs actually own to ensure that they are not too heavily concentrated in a few stocks, increasing their portfolio risk beyond what they might have expected.

Not sure if you are invested properly for your situation? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring regarding the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.