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The Super Bowl and Your Investments

February 7, 2023 by 6 Comments
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It’s Super Bowl time and once again my beloved Packers are not playing for the twelfth consecutive year. They had a disappointing season, but made a run at a playoff spot only to fall short in the season finale at Lambeau Field.

Every year the Super Bowl Indicator is resurrected as a forecasting tool for the stock market.

The indicator says that a win by a team from the old pre-merger NFL is bullish for the stock market, while a win by a team from the old AFL is a bad sign for the markets. Looking at this year’s game, Philadelphia is an original NFL team while Kansas City is an original AFL team. Clearly investors should be rooting for the Eagles this year.

How has the Super Bowl Indicator done?

While in 2021 the indicator held true to form, it clearly did not in 2022. The LA Rams won the game but the stock market had its worst year since 2008 with the S&P 500 dropping by over 18%.

The indicator has failed to predict the direction of the stock market in six of the past seven years. Kansas City won the 2020 game and the market had an up year in spite of the impact of COVID-19. New England won the 2019 game and it was also an up year for the markets. Overall the indicator has held true for 41 of the 56 prior Super Bowls.

Quoted in a Wall Street Journal article before the 2016 game, respected Wall Street analyst Robert Stoval said, “There is no intellectual backing for this sort of thing, except that it works.”

Some notable misses for the indicator include:

  • St. Louis (an old NFL team that was formerly and is now again the L.A. Rams) won in 2000 and the market dropped.
  • Baltimore (an old NFL team that was formerly the original Cleveland Browns) won in 2001 and the market dropped. Perhaps the markets were confused since the Browns became an AFC team (along with the Steelers and the Colts) as part of the 1970 merger.
  • The New York Giants (an old NFL team) won in 2008 and the market tanked in what was the start of the financial crisis.
  • In 1970 the Kansas City Chiefs shocked the Minnesota Vikings and the Dow Jones Average ended the year up slightly.

Is this a valid investment strategy?

As far as your investments, I think you’ll agree that the outcome of the game should not dictate your strategy. Rather I suggest an investment strategy that incorporates some basic blocking and tackling:

  • A financial plan should be the basis of your strategy. Any investment strategy that does not incorporate your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance is flawed.
  • Take stock of where you are. What impact did the decline in both stocks and bonds in 2022 have on your portfolio? Perhaps it’s time to rebalance and to rethink your ongoing asset allocation.
  • Costs matter.  Low cost index mutual funds and ETFs can be great core holdings. Solid, well-managed active funds can also contribute to a well-diversified portfolio. In all cases make sure you are in the lowest cost share classes available to you.

View all accounts as part of a total portfolio. This means IRAs, your 401(k), taxable accounts, mutual funds, individual stocks and bonds, etc. Each individual holding should serve a purpose in terms of your overall strategy.

The Super Bowl Indicator is another fun piece of Super Bowl hype. Your investment strategy should be guided by your goals, your time horizon for the money and your tolerance for risk, not the outcome of a football game.

Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Concerned about stock market volatility? Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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Small Business Retirement Plans – SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

February 5, 2023 by 41 Comments
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One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement.  As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work.  You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).

Small Business Retirement Plans – SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

SEP-IRA vs. Solo 401(k)

SEP-IRA Solo 401(k)
Who can contribute? Employer contributions only. Employer contributions and employee deferrals.
Employer contribution limits The maximum for 2022 is $61,000, this has been increased to $66,000 for 2023. Contributions are deductible as a business expense and are not required every year. A SEP-IRA can be opened and funded up to your business tax filing date, including extensions. For 2023, the employer and employee combined contribution limit is a maximum of $66,000 and $73,500 for those who are 50 or over, respectively.  Employer profit sharing contributions are limited to a maximum of 25% of the employee’s compensation. They are deductible as a business expense and are not required every year.
Employee contribution limits A SEP-IRA only allows employer contributions. Employees can contribute to an IRA (Traditional or Roth, based upon their individual circumstances). Employee contribution limits are $22,500 for 2023. An additional $7,500 catch-up contribution is available for participants 50 and over. In no case can total employee contributions exceed 100% of their compensation.
Eligibility Typically, employees must be allowed to participate if they are over age 21, earn at least $600 annually, and have worked for the same employer in at least three of the past five years. No age or income restrictions. Business owners, partners and spouses working in the business are generally eligible to contribute. Common-law employees are not eligible.

Note the Solo 401(k) is also referred to as an Individual 401(k).

  • While a SEP-IRA can be used with employees in reality this can become an expensive proposition as you will need to contribute the same percentage for your employees as you defer for yourself. I generally consider this a plan for the self-employed.
  • Both plans allow for contributions up your tax filing date, including extensions for the prior tax year. Consult with your tax professional to determine when your employee contributions must be made. The Solo 401(k) plan must be established by the end of the calendar year.
  • The SEP-IRA contribution is calculated as a percentage of compensation. If your compensation is variable the amount that you can contribute year-to year will vary as well. Even if you have the cash to do so, your contribution will be limited by your income for a given year.
  • By contrast you can defer the lesser of $$22,500 and $30,000 (for those who are 50 or over) for 2023 into a Solo 401(k) plus the profit sharing contribution. This might be the better alternative for those with plenty of cash and a variable income.
  • Loans are possible from Solo 401(k)s, but not with SEP-IRAs.
  • A Roth feature is available for a Solo 401(k) if allowed by your plan document. Beginning in 2023 the ability to open and fund a Roth SEP-IRA is available as part of the recently passed Secure 2.0 rules. There will likely be some additional guidance on Roth SEPs from the IRS to come.
  • Both plans require minimal administrative work, though once the balance in your Solo 401(k) account tops $250,000, the level of annual government paperwork increases a bit.
  • Both plans can be opened at custodians such as Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price, and others. For the Solo 401(k) you will generally use a prototype plan. If you want to contribute to a Roth account, for example, ensure that this is possible through the custodian you choose.
  • Investment options for both plans generally run the full gamut of typical investment options available at your custodian such as mutual funds, individual stocks, ETFs, bonds, closed-end funds, etc. There are some statutory restrictions so check with your custodian.
  • For those wishing to invest in alternative assets inside of their SEP or solo 401(k), a number of self-directed retirement plan custodians offer this option.

Both plans can offer a great way for you to save for retirement and to realize some tax savings in the process. Whether you go this route or with some other option I urge to start saving for your retirement today.  

Self-employed? You need to start a retirement plan today.

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Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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Five Things to do During a Stock Market Correction

June 13, 2022 by 5 Comments
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After a strong finish in 2020 and very solid returns in 2021, we’ve seen a lot of market volatility so far in 2022. The S&P 500 index was down about 17.6% on a year-to-date basis as of Friday’s close. The combination of higher inflation, higher interest rates and the situation in Ukraine are all fueling this market volatility. Nobody can predict how long this will last. Regardless, here are five things you should do during a stock market correction.

Do nothing

Assuming that you have a financial plan with an investment strategy in place there is really nothing to do at this point. Ideally you’ve been rebalancing your portfolio along the way and your asset allocation is largely in line with your plan and your risk tolerance.  You should continue to monitor your portfolio and make these types of adjustments as needed. Making moves in reaction to a stock market correction (official or otherwise) is rarely a good idea.  At the very least wait until the dust settles.  As Aaron Rodgers told the fans in Green Bay after the Packers bad start in 2016, relax. They went on to win their division before losing in the NFC title game.  Sound advice for fans of the greatest team on the planet and investors as well.

Review your mutual fund holdings

I always look at rough market periods as a good time to take a look at the various mutual funds and ETFs in a portfolio. What I’m looking for is how did they hold up compared to their peers during the market downturn. For example during the 2008-2009 market debacle I looked at funds to see how they did in both the down market of 2008 and the up market of 2009. If a fund did worse than the majority of its peers in 2008 I would expect to see better than average performance in the up market of 2009. If there was under performance during both periods to me this was a huge red flag.

Don’t get caught up in the media hype

If you watch CNBC long enough you will find some expert to support just about any opinion about the stock market during any type of market situation. This can be especially dangerous for investors who might already feel a sense of fear when the markets are tanking.  I’m not discounting the great information CNBC and the rest of the financial media provides, but you need to take much of this with a grain of salt. This is a good time to lean on your financial plan and your investment strategy and use these tools as a guide.

Focus on risk

Use stock market corrections and downturns to assess your portfolio’s risk and more importantly your risk tolerance. Assess whether your portfolio has held up in line with your expectations. If not perhaps you are taking more risk than you had planned.  Also assess your feelings about your portfolio’s performance. If you find yourself feeling unduly fearful about what is going on perhaps it is time to revisit your allocation and your financial plan once things settle down.

Look for bargains

If you had your eye on a particular stock, ETF, or mutual fund before the market dropped perhaps this is the time to make an investment. I don’t advocate market timing but buying a good long-term investment is even more attractive when it’s on sale so to speak.

Markets will always correct at some point.  Smart investors factor this into their plans and don’t overreact. Be a smart investor.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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4 Things To Do When The Stock Market Drops

February 3, 2022 by 10 Comments
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Today was an ugly day in the stock market. The S&P 500 declined by 2.44% and the Dow dropped 1.45%. Much of this decline was fueled by the huge decline in Facebook’s parent’s shares. Meta Platforms, Inc. (ticker FB) saw its share price decline by a stunning 26.39% in a single day on the heels of its Q4 earnings report. At the end of 2021, Meta shares comprised 1.96% of the Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF (ticker VOO).

Today’s decline is on top of high levels of market volatility that we’ve seen so far in 2022.

My thoughts on how investors should react to this type of stock market decline haven’t changed since I first wrote this post a number of years ago.

4 Things to do When the Stock Market Drops

Breathe 

Cable news networks like CNBC provide extensive coverage and analysis on days with a steep stock market decline like we saw today. It’s easy to get caught up in all of this.. Don’t let yourself be sucked in and rattled.

Step back, take a deep breath and relax.

Take stock of where you are 

Review your accounts and assess the extent of the damage that has been done. Investors who are well-diversified may be hurt but generally not to the extent of those who are highly allocated to stocks.

Review your asset allocation 

With the tremendous year for stocks in in 2021, many investors are likely still in a good long-term position. If you haven’t done so recently, perhaps it is time to review your asset allocation and make some adjustments. Proper diversification is great way to reduce investment risk. This is a good time to rebalance your portfolio back to your target asset allocation if needed as well.

Go shopping 

Market declines can create buying opportunities. If you have some individual stocks, ETFs or mutual funds on your “wish list” this is the time to start looking at them with an eye towards buying at some point. It is unrealistic to assume you will be able to buy at the very bottom so don’t worry about that.


Before making any investment be sure that it fits your strategy and your financial plan. Also make sure the investment is still a solid long-term holding and that it is not cheap for reasons other than general market conditions.

The Bottom Line 

Steep and sudden stock market declines can be unnerving. Don’t panic and don’t let yourself get caught up in all of the media hype. Stick to your plan, review your holdings and make some adjustments if needed. Nobody knows where the markets are headed but those who make investment decisions driven by fear usually regret it.

Those who make investing decisions driven by fear usually regret it.

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Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if its right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring regarding the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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Annuities: The Wonder Drug for Your Retirement?

January 17, 2022 by 12 Comments
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Annuities: The Wonder Drug for Your Retirement?

Annuities are often touted as the “cure” for all that ails your retirement.  Baby Boomers and retirees are the prime target market for the annuity sales types. You’ve undoubtedly heard many of these pitches in person or as advertisements. The pitches frequently pander to the fears that many investors still feel after the last stock market decline. After all, what’s not to like about guaranteed income?

What is an annuity?

I’ll let the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) explain this in a quote from their website:

“An annuity is a contract between you and an insurance company that is designed to meet retirement and other long-range goals, under which you make a lump-sum payment or series of payments. In return, the insurer agrees to make periodic payments to you beginning immediately or at some future date.

Annuities typically offer tax-deferred growth of earnings and may include a death benefit that will pay your beneficiary a specified minimum amount, such as your total purchase payments. While tax is deferred on earnings growth, when withdrawals are taken from the annuity, gains are taxed at ordinary income rates, and not capital gains rates. If you withdraw your money early from an annuity, you may pay substantial surrender charges to the insurance company, as well as tax penalties.

There are generally three types of annuities — fixed, indexed, and variable. In a fixed annuity, the insurance company agrees to pay you no less than a specified rate of interest during the time that your account is growing. The insurance company also agrees that the periodic payments will be a specified amount per dollar in your account. These periodic payments may last for a definite period, such as 20 years, or an indefinite period, such as your lifetime or the lifetime of you and your spouse.

In an indexed annuity, the insurance company credits you with a return that is based on changes in an index, such as the S&P 500 Composite Stock Price Index. Indexed annuity contracts also provide that the contract value will be no less than a specified minimum, regardless of index performance.

In a variable annuity, you can choose to invest your purchase payments from among a range of different investment options, typically mutual funds. The rate of return on your purchase payments, and the amount of the periodic payments you eventually receive, will vary depending on the performance of the investment options you have selected.

Variable annuities are securities regulated by the SEC. An indexed annuity may or may not be a security; however, most indexed annuities are not registered with the SEC. Fixed annuities are not securities and are not regulated by the SEC. You can learn more about variable annuities by reading our publication, Variable Annuities: What You Should Know.”

What’s good about annuities?

In an uncertain world, an annuity can offer a degree of certainty to retirees in terms of receiving a fixed stream of payments over their lifetime or some other specified period of time. Once you annuitize there’s no guesswork about how much you will be receiving, assuming that the insurance company behind the product stays healthy.

Watch out for high and/or hidden fees 

The biggest beef about annuities are the fees, which are often hidden or least difficult to find. Many annuity products carry fees that are pretty darn high, others are much more reasonable. In general, the lack of transparency regarding the fees associated with many annuity contracts is appalling.

There are typically several layers of fees in an annuity:

Fees connected with the underlying investments.  In a variable annuity there are fees connected with the underlying sub-account (accounts that resemble mutual funds) similar to the expense ratio of a mutual fund. In a fixed annuity the underlying fees are typically the difference between the net interest rate you will receive vs. the gross interest rate earned.  In the case of an indexed annuity product the fees are just plain murky.

Mortality and expense charges are fees charged by the insurance company to cover their costs for guaranteeing a stream of income to you. While I get this and understand it, the wide variance in these and other fees across the universe of annuity contracts and the insurance companies that provide them makes me shake my head.

Surrender charges are fees that are designed to keep you from withdrawing your funds for a period of time.  From my point of view these charges are heinous whether in an annuity, a mutual fund, or anyplace else. If you are considering an annuity and the product has a surrender charge, avoid it. I’m not advocating withdrawing money early from an annuity, but surrender charges also restrict you from exchanging a high cost annuity into one with a lower fee structure. Essentially these fees serve to ensure that the agent or rep who sold you the high fee annuity (and the insurance company) continue to benefit by placing handcuffs on you in terms of sticking with the policy.

Who’s really guaranteeing your annuity? 

When you purchase an annuity, your stream of payments is guaranteed by the “full faith and credit” of the underlying insurance company.  This differs from a pension that is annuitized and backed by the PBGC, a governmental entity, up to certain limits.

Outside of the most notable failure, Executive Life in the early 1990s, there have not been a high number of insurance company failures. In the case of Executive Life, thousands of annuity recipients were impacted in the form of greatly reduced annuity payments which in many cases permanently impacted the quality of their retirement.

Insurance companies are regulated at the state level; state insurance departments are generally the backstop in the event of an insurance company failure. In most cases you will receive some portion of the payment amount that you expected, but there is often a delay in receiving these payments.

The point is not to scare anyone from buying an annuity but rather to remind you to perform your own due diligence on the underlying insurance company.

Should you buy an annuity? 

Annuities are not a bad product as long as you understand what they can and cannot do for you. Like anything else you need to shop for the right annuity. For example, an insurance agent or registered rep is not going to show you a product from a low cost provider who offers a product with ultra-low fees and no surrender charges because they receive no commissions.

An annuity can offer diversification in your retirement income stream. Perhaps you have investments in taxable and tax-deferred accounts from which you will withdraw money to fund your retirement. Adding Social Security to the mix provides a government-funded stream of payments. A commercial annuity can also be of value as part of your retirement income stream, again as long as you shop for the appropriate product.

Annuities are generally sold rather than bought by Baby Boomers and others. Be a smart consumer and understand what you are buying, why a particular annuity product (and the insurance company) are right for you, and the benefits that you expect to receive from the annuity. Properly used, an annuity can be a valuable component of your retirement planning efforts. Be sure to read ALL of the fine print and understand ALL of the expenses, terms, conditions and restrictions before writing a check.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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401(k) Fee Disclosure and the American Funds

January 16, 2021 by 45 Comments
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With the release and subsequent repeal of the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rules for financial advisors dealing with client retirement accounts, much of the focus in recent years has been on the impact on advisors who provide advice to clients for their IRA accounts. Long before these rules were unveiled and then repealed, financial advisors serving 401(k) plan sponsors have had a fiduciary responsibility to act in the best interests of the plan’s participants under the DOL’s ERISA rules.

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Starting in 2012, retirement plan sponsors have been required to disclose the costs associated with the investment options offered in 401(k) plans annually.

As an illustration, here’s how the various share classes offered by the American Funds for retirement plans stack up under the portion of the required disclosures that deal with the costs and performance of the plan’s investment options.

American Funds EuroPacific Growth

The one American Funds option that I’ve used most over the years in 401(k) plans is the EuroPacific Growth fund.  This fund is a core large cap foreign stock fund.  It generally has some emerging markets holdings, but most of the fund is comprised of foreign equities from developed countries. The R6 share class is the least expensive of the retirement plan share classes. Let’s look at how the various share classes stack up in the disclosure format:

Share Class Ticker Expense Ratio Expenses per $1,000 invested Trailing 1-year return Trailing 3-year return Trailing 5-year return
R1 RERAX 1.58% $15.80 23.86% 9.51% 11.22%
R2 RERBX 1.56% $15.60 23.89% 9.52% 11.24%
R3 RERCX 1.12% $11.20 24.43% 10.02% 11.74%
R4 REREX 0.81% $8.10 24.81% 10.35% 12.08%
R5 RERFX 0.51% $5.10 25.19% 10.69% 12.42%
R6 RERGX 0.46% $4.60 25.27% 10.74% 12.47%

3-and 5-year returns are annualized.  Source:  Morningstar   Data as of 12/31/2020

While the chart above pertains only to the EuroPacific Growth fund, looking at the six retirement plan share classes for any of the American Funds products would offer similar relative results.   

The underlying portfolios and the management team are identical for each share class. The difference lies in the expense ratio of each share class.  This is driven by the 12b-1 fees associated with the different share classes. This fee is part of the expense ratio and is generally used all or in part to compensate the advisor on the plan.  In this case these advisors would generally be registered reps, brokers, and insurance agents. The 12b-1 fee can also revert to the plan to lower expenses. The 12b-1 fees by share class are:

R1                   1.00%

R2                   0.75%

R3                   0.50%

R4                   0.25%

R5 and R6 have no 12b-1 fees.

Growth of $10,000 invested

The real impact of expense differences can be seen by comparing the growth of $10,000 invested by a hypothetical investor on December 31, 2010 and held through December 31, 2020.

  • The $10,000 invested in the R1 shares would have grown to a value of $19,580.32.
  • The $10,000 invested in the R6 shares would have grown to a value of $21,880.57.

This is a difference of $2,300.25 or 11.7%. The portfolios of the two share classes of the fund are identical, the difference in performance is due to the difference in expenses for the two share classes. If you think of these as two retirement plan participants, one whose plan uses the R1 share class and the other whose plan uses the R6 share class, the first investor would have 11.7% less after ten years due to their plan sponsor’s choice regarding which fund share class to offer.

This analysis assumes a one-time investment of $10,000 and the reinvestment of all distributions. Morningstar’s Advisor Workstation was used to perform this analysis.

Share classes matter

The R1 and R2 shares have traditionally been used in plans where the 12b-1 fees are used to compensate a financial salesperson. This is fine as long as that salesperson is providing a real service for their compensation and is not just being paid to place the business.

If you are a plan participant and you notice that your plan has one or more American Funds choices in the R1 or R2 share classes, in my opinion you probably have a lousy plan due to the extremely high expenses charged by these share classes. It is incumbent upon you to ask your employer if the plan can move to lower cost shares or even a different provider. The R3 shares are a bit of an improvement but still quite pricey for a retirement plan in my opinion.

To be clear, I’m generally a fan of the American Funds. Overall however, their funds tend to offer a large number of share classes between their retirement, non-retirement and 529 plan shares. While the overall portfolios are generally the same, it’s critical for investors and retirement plan sponsors to understand the differing expense structures and the impact they have on potential returns.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit:  Flickr

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4 Benefits of Portfolio Rebalancing

August 22, 2020 by 14 Comments
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The past couple of years have been a roller coaster ride in the stock market. The S&P 500 lost 4.38% in 2018 mostly from a poor fourth quarter performance. The market recovered nicely in 2019 with the index posting a 31.49% total return for the year. This trend seemed to be continuing into 2020, with the index hitting a record high in late February.

Then the markets felt the impact of COVID-19. By late March the index had plummeted over 33% from its all-time high reached only a month prior. Since then, however, the stock market has recovered nicely with the S&P 500 closing at an all-time high yesterday.

The recovery in the markets has been an uneven one. Growth stocks have led the way, while value has largely lagged. Apple’s shares are up over 70% year-to-date, Amazon is up almost 78% and Microsoft is up over 36%.

With all of these gyrations among various asset classes over the past couple of years, you may be taking on more or less risk than is appropriate for your situation. If you haven’t done so recently, this is a good time to consider rebalancing your investments. Here are four benefits of portfolio rebalancing.

4 Benefits of Portfolio Rebalancing

Balancing risk and reward

Asset allocation is about balancing risk and reward. Invariably some asset classes will perform better than others. This can cause your portfolio to be skewed towards an allocation that takes too much risk or too little risk based on your financial objectives.

During robust periods in the stock market equities will outperform asset classes such as fixed income. Perhaps your target allocation was 65% stocks and 35% bonds and cash. A stock market rally might leave your portfolio at 75% stocks and 25% fixed income and cash. This is great if the market continues to rise but you would likely see a more pronounced decline in your portfolio should the market experience a sharp correction.

Portfolio rebalancing enforces a level of discipline

Rebalancing imposes a level of discipline in terms of selling a portion of your winners and putting that money back into asset classes that have underperformed.

This may seem counterintuitive but market leadership rotates over time. During the first decade of this century emerging markets equities were often among the top performing asset classes. Fast forward to today and their performance has been much more muted.

Rebalancing can help save investors from their own worst instincts. It is often tempting to let top performing holdings and asset classes run when the markets seem to keep going up. Investors heavy in large caps, especially those with heavy tech holdings, found out the risk of this approach when the Dot Com bubble burst in early 2000.

Ideally investors should have a written investment policy that outlines their target asset allocation with upper and lower percentage ranges. Violating these ranges should trigger a review for potential portfolio rebalancing.

A good reason to review your portfolio

When considering portfolio rebalancing investors should also incorporate a full review of their portfolio that includes a review of their individual holdings and the continued validity of their investment strategy. Some questions you should ask yourself:

  • Have individual stock holdings hit my growth target for that stock?
  • How do my mutual funds and ETFs stack up compared to their peers?
    • Relative performance?
    • Expense ratios?
    • Style consistency?
  • Have my mutual funds or ETFs experienced significant inflows or outflows of dollars?
  • Have there been any recent changes in the key personnel managing the fund?

These are some of the factors that financial advisors consider as they review client portfolios.

This type of review should be done at least annually and I generally suggest that investors review their allocation no more often than quarterly.

Helps you stay on track with your financial plan 

Investing success is not a goal unto itself but rather a tool to help ensure that you meet your financial goals and objectives. Regular readers of The Chicago Financial Planner know that I am a big proponent of having a financial plan in place.

A properly constructed financial plan will contain a target asset allocation and an investment strategy tied to your goals, your timeframe for the money and your risk tolerance. Periodic portfolio rebalancing is vital to maintaining an appropriate asset allocation that is in line with your financial plan.

The Bottom Line 

Regular portfolio rebalancing helps reduce downside investment risk and ensures that your investments are allocated in line with your financial plan. It also can help investors impose an important level of discipline on themselves.

How has the volatility in the stock market impacted your investments and your financial plan? Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if its right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring for the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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8 Portfolio Rebalancing Tips

May 25, 2020 by 6 Comments
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In light of the recent stock market volatility, it’s important to review your asset allocation and consider rebalancing your portfolio if needed. This post looks at some ways to implement a portfolio rebalancing strategy. Here are 8 portfolio rebalancing tips that you can use to help in this process.

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Set a target asset allocation 

Your asset allocation should be an outgrowth of a target asset allocation from your financial plan and/or a written investment policy. This is the target asset allocation that should be used when rebalancing your portfolio. 

Establish a time frame to rebalance 

Ideally you are reviewing your portfolio and your investments on a regular basis. As part of this process you should incorporate a review of your asset allocation at a set interval. This might be semi-annually for example. I generally suggest no more frequently than quarterly. An exception would be after a precipitous move up or down in the markets.

Take a total portfolio view 

When rebalancing your portfolio take a total portfolio view. This includes taxable accounts as well as retirement accounts like an IRA or your 401(k). This approach allows you to be strategic and tax-efficient when rebalancing and ensures that you are not taking too little or too much risk on an overall basis.

Incorporate new money 

If you have new money to invest take a look at your asset allocation first and use these funds to shore up portions of your asset allocation that may be below their target allocation. A twist on this is to direct new 401(k) contributions to one or two funds in order to get your overall asset allocation back in balance. In this case you will need to take any use of your plan’s auto rebalancing feature into account as well. 

Use auto pilot 

For those with an employer sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k), 403(b) or similar defined contribution plan many plans offer an auto-rebalancing feature. This allows you to select a time interval at which your account will be rebalanced back to the allocation that you select.

This serves two purposes. First it saves you from having to remember to do it. Second it takes the emotion and potential hesitation out of the decision to pare back on your winners and redistribute these funds to other holdings in your account.

I generally suggest using a six-month time frame and no more frequently than quarterly and no less than annually. Remember you can opt out or change the interval at any time you wish and you can rebalance your account between the set intervals if needed.

Make charitable contributions with appreciated assets 

If you are charitably inclined consider gifting shares of appreciated holdings in taxable accounts such as individual stocks, mutual funds and ETFs to charity as part of the rebalancing process. This allows you to forgo paying taxes on the capital gains and may provide a charitable tax deduction on the market value of the securities donated.

Most major custodians can help facilitate this and many charities are set-up to accept donations on this type. Make sure that you have held the security for at least a year and a day in order to get the maximum benefit if you able to itemize deductions. This is often associated with year-end planning but this is something that you can do at any point during the year.

Incorporate tax-loss harvesting

This is another tactic that is often associated with year-end planning but one that can be implemented throughout the year. Tax-loss harvesting involves selling holdings with an unrealized loss in order to realize that loss for tax purposes.

You might periodically look at holdings with an unrealized loss and sell some of them off as part of the rebalancing process. Note I only suggest taking a tax loss if makes sense from an investment standpoint, it is not a good idea to “let the tax tail wag the investment dog.”

Be sure that you are aware of and abide by the wash sale rules that pertain to realizing and deducting tax losses.

Don’t think you are smarter than the market 

It’s tough to sell winners and then invest that money back into portions of your portfolio that haven’t done as well. However, portfolio rebalancing is part of a disciplined investment process.  It can be tempting to let your winners run, but too much of this can skew your allocation too far in the direction of stocks and increase your downside risk.

If you think you can outsmart the market, trust me you can’t. How devastating can the impact of being wrong be? Just ask those who bought into the mantra “…it’s different this time…” before the Dot Com bubble burst or just before the stock market debacle of the last recession.

Rebalance, you are not smarter then the stock market.

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The Bottom Line 

Portfolio rebalancing is a key strategy to control the risk of your investment portfolio. It is important that you review your portfolio for potential rebalancing opportunities at set intervals and that you have the discipline to follow through and execute if needed. These 8 portfolio rebalancing tips can help.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

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New Money Market Rules – How Will They Impact You?

March 22, 2020 by 2 Comments
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Update 3/22/2020 – This past week the Federal Reserve saw fit to prop-up money market funds in the wake of the economic turmoil from the coronavirus. Its important for investors to understand the rules surrounding any money market fund in which you hold money, either in your own account or within an employer-sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k). The original post below was posted on July 30, 2014.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently passed new rules governing money market funds. These rules are designed to combat liquidity problems should the economy experience another period of crisis such as in 2008. Here are a few items from these new money market rules that might impact you.  You might also check out this excellent piece by Morningstar’s John Reckenthaler.

Floating NAV – Institutional Money Market Funds 

For institutional money market funds the stable $1 net asset value (NAV) per share will be gone. The NAV of these funds will be priced out to four decimal places and will be allowed to float.  Your shares may be worth more or less than what you paid for them upon redemption.

Again this applies to institutional money market funds. Retail money market funds, defined as funds owned by natural persons, along with government and Treasury-based money funds will retain their stable $1 NAV. From what I have been told, money market funds owned by participants within a 401(k) or similar retirement plan are considered to be retail funds as well. I’m not quite as sure with regard to an institutional share class money market fund held by an individual investor.

Liquidity Fees and Redemption Gates 

Both retail money market funds, again excluding funds investing in government and Treasury instruments and institutional funds, will be subject to liquidity fees and redemption gates (restrictions) under certain circumstances.

  • If liquid assets fall below 30%, a fund’s board may impose a 2% fee on redemptions.  This is at their discretion.
  • If liquid assets fall below 10%, a fund’s board must impose a 1% fee on redemptions.  This fee is mandatory under the new rules.
  • If liquid assets fall below 30%, a fund’s board may suspend redemptions from the fund for up to 10 days. 

How will these new money market rules impact you? 

Money market funds will have two years from the date the final SEC rules appear in the Federal Register to be in compliance with the floating NAV, liquidity fee, and redemption gate rules.

According to Benefits Pro:

“Nearly $3 trillion is invested in money-market funds. As of July 3, 2014, more than $800 billion was held in the institutional money-market funds affected by today’s reforms, according to the SEC.” 

Among the main users of institutional money market funds would be pension plans, foundations, and endowments. They will be the ones directly impacted by the change to a floating rate NAV; however the beneficiaries of these funds will ultimately be impacted should this change have a negative impact on the underlying portfolio.

The liquidity fees and redemption gates will directly impact individual investors.

A 1% or 2% fee on redemptions would be quite a hit to your balance, especially if viewed in terms of today’s interest rates on money market funds in the range of 0.01%.

The ability to delay redemptions up to 10 days could also have an impact especially if you had written a check off of that account to pay your mortgage or some other bill.

The true test will be if we experience the extreme conditions like those that marked the 2008-09 economic downturn. None the less as an investor it would behoove you to ask your bank, custodian, or financial advisor how these changes might impact any money market funds you hold and also if it makes sense to switch to another cash option.

Approaching retirement and want another opinion on where you stand? Not sure if your investments are right for your situation? Need help getting on track? Check out my Financial Review/Second Opinion for Individuals service for detailed guidance and advice about your situation.

NEW SERVICE – Financial Coaching. Check out this new service to see if it’s right for you. Financial coaching focuses on providing education and mentoring on the financial transition to retirement.

FINANCIAL WRITING. Check out my freelance financial writing services including my ghostwriting services for financial advisors.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Check out our resources page for links to some other great sites and some outstanding products that you might find useful.

Photo credit: NoONBRAND on Unsplash

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