Objective information about financial planning, investments, and retirement plans

Denver Wins! Time to Go to Cash?

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The Denver Broncos just won Super Bowl 50 and its looking like Peyton Manning will go out a winner. Good news and a feel good story? Not for investors. The Super Bowl Indicator says a win by an AFC team is a bad omen for the stock market for the year. 

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Super Bowl Indicator

The Super Bowl Indicator says that if a team from the old American Football League (AFL) wins the Super Bowl that the stock market will finish down for the year.

This indicator has held true for 40 of the previous 49 Super Bowls played prior to this one, including the past seven years.

The New York Giants, one of the earliest teams from the NFL, won the Super Bowl in 2008 but as we all recall the stock market had its worst year since the Great Depression with the S&P 500 being down 37% for the year. I guess a little thing like the mortgage fueled financial crises trumps a “sure fire” stock market predictor like the outcome of the Super Bowl.

The January Effect 

The Stock Trader’s Almanac says that if the month of January is down then 75% of the time the stock market will be down for the year.

The January Effect says that stocks that were sold off in December for tax-loss harvesting purposes will rally in January when investors buy them at reduced prices.

With the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both down over 5% for the month this clearly didn’t happen.

Time to go to cash? 

Clearly investors should not peg their actions to any type of indicator like the Super Bowl Indicator or any of the others of a similar nature that have cropped up over the years.

The best course for investors has always been to have a financial plan, have an investing strategy and stick to their plan.

The Bottom Line 

The Super Bowl Indicator is fun and part of the Super Bowl hype. At the end of the day there is really no correlation between the performance of the stock market and who wins the Super Bowl. Investors should invest based upon their goals, their time horizon and their risk tolerance. I will say this, however. The market will be way up in 2017 after my Green Bay Packers bring the Lombardi Trophy back to its rightful home, Lambeau Field. OK no predictions, I have no idea what the market will do after the Packers win (which is a sure thing, I hope).

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Please check out our resources page as well.

Peyton Manning and Investing Success

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Updated February 7, 2016. 

It will be interesting to see how Manning does in today’s Super Bowl 50 and whether he retires if Denver wins.

I attended the Envestnet Advisor Summit at the Chicago Hilton in 2014.  Excellent conference, Envestnet offers a robust platform for financial advisors.  A colleague urged me to attend and I’m glad I did.

The highlight of the conference was Peyton Manning’s keynote address on Friday morning.  Regular readers here know that I am diehard fan of the Green Bay Packers, but I think all football fans have to respect Manning’s skill and his character.  His address was about leadership and being a game changer.  I felt that several of his remarks and comments have a direct correlation to being a successful investor.

Peyton Manning

Thrive on discomfort 

Manning made this reference in terms of it being a key trait of game changers.  I think this is a key trait of successful investors as well.

The investing landscape has certainly undergone change and disruption since the beginning of this century.  We’ve experienced the bursting of the Dot Com Bubble, the financial crisis of 2008-09, the Flash Crash and many other disruptions.

Successful investors adapt to change and embrace it to their advantage.  In some cases this means knowing when to change their investing style, in others it means knowing when to stay the course.  It also means knowing how and when to use new investing tools like ETFs and others.

Ask questions 

Manning mentioned this as a key trait of leaders in business and something that he does constantly in an effort to guide his team to even greater levels of success.

Investors should always ask questions.  Some key questions include:

  • Would I buy this particular investment today?
  • Is there a better place for my money?
  • What are your conflicts of interest in terms of advising me to make this investment?
  • How does this investment fit into my overall portfolio?  

It’s over move on after a bad play

Manning cited the uncanny ability of 49ers great Joe Montana to lead his team to a touchdown on the series immediately following his having thrown an interception.

This is a key trait for successful investors to adopt.  I can’t tell you how many investors I’ve spoken to who want to hold a losing position until it breaks even.  The ability to accept an investment loss is critical.  Sometimes it is better to realize a loss and reinvest the proceeds elsewhere.  Even the best investors make bad investing bets.  The successful ones are capable of admitting this and moving on.

Invest in a coach to keep you growing

Manning hired the current Duke Head Football Coach as his offseason coach to help him improve his quarterback skills.  This individual was his offensive coordinator in college at Tennessee.  This is Peyton Manning, 5 time MVP and Super Bowl champion hiring a coach to help him improve his game!

Many investors do a great job of accumulating wealth and managing their investments.  At some point even the most successful ones realize that they might need some outside expertise to take things to the next level.

Perhaps this realization comes as their career and family obligations limit the time they can spend on their investments.  Often this realization comes as retirement approaches.

Hiring a financial advisor is not a sign of weakness; rather it is a sign that you realize the limits of your expertise and the best uses of your time.  If you are at this point here is a guide to choosing a financial advisor that might help you.

Peyton Manning spoke about leadership and did a great job of tying in his experiences as a leader in sports to what financial advisors need to do to lead clients to the successful outcomes they are seeking.  As I listened to him speak I couldn’t help but see the relevance of his message to what I believe it takes to be a successful investor in today’s dynamic investing world.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Please check out our resources page as well.

Photo credit:  Flickr

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A Look Back

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I have been blogging for a bit over three years now.  This has been a great outlet for my love of writing.  Working as a

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financial advisor is about the best “job” one could have and I feel fortunate to be able to share what I’ve learned over the years with you.

Just as I often review the assumptions that I use in choosing investments to recommend to my clients, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at a few of the prior posts on this blog and to update the underlying situations.

2010 The Year of the Fiduciary? 

Well 2010; 2011; and 2012 have come and will soon all be in the books without a uniform Fiduciary Standard that must be followed by all financial advisors dealing with the investing public.  I’ve read that this will be a top item for consideration among the regulators in 2013.  I hope this is the case.  One definition of Fiduciary:

fi•du•ci•ar•y – A financial advisor held to a Fiduciary Standard occupies a position of special trust and confidence when working with a client. As a Fiduciary, the financial advisor is required to act with undivided loyalty to the client. This includes disclosure of how the financial advisor is to be compensated and any corresponding conflicts of interest. 

I think this is the right way for all financial advisors to treat their clients; some very deep pockets in the financial services industry disagree.  

Is Your Financial Advisor Like a Replacement Ref?

I wrote this on September 26th of this year two days after the infamous Monday night game where the replacement refs robbed my beloved Green Bay Packers on a blown call at the end of the game in Seattle.  This was the game that brought the NFL referee lockout to an end.  Since then the Packers have won 7 of their last 8 games and stand atop the NFC North, Seattle has also had a good season and stands a 8-5 and are in the playoff hunt.  Nothing in this update about finance but I have been a lifelong NFL and Green Bay Packer fan.

Lessons From the Groupon and Facebook IPOs

Since writing this shares of Facebook have risen to over $27 per share from just under $18 when I wrote this post in early September of this year.  This is still far below the $38 IPO price in May, but the stock appears to be in the midst of a rally.  Time will tell how the company fares as a publically traded entity.

Groupon went public at $20 per share in late 2011.  The stock currently sits around $4.25 per share almost the same price as when I wrote this post in September.  Since then there has been some excitement as at least one hedge fund has purchased shares and the Board retained founder Andrew Mason as the company’s CEO amid speculation that they had considered replacing him.  Lastly there were some rumors that Google, a former suitor, was once again interested in acquiring the company at what would be a bargain price compared to their last offer.  I fail to understand the economics of the daily deal “industry” and view this IPO as nothing more than a payday for the founders and the investment bankers.

That Nice Man at Church Wants to Sell Me a ….

Since writing this post in January of 2011, Bernard Madoff remains in jail, one of his sons committed suicide by hanging himself in his apartment, and four years after Madoff’s arrest the trustee assigned to try to recover assets has recovered about half of the $17.5 billion that investors lost.

In the interim another famous Ponzi schemer Alan Stanford has been convicted and imprisoned.  Sadly financial fraud, including affinity fraud, is still rampant and all investors need to protect themselves.

Risk, Reward, and Peyton Manning

When I wrote this post in March the Colts had just waived Manning rather than pay him the $28 million due him at the time.  Seemed like a reasonable bet at the time given that he was coming off of neck surgery and had missed the entire 2011 season.

Peyton ended up in Denver and has the Broncos on the cusp of the playoffs with 10 wins as I write this.

Meanwhile the Colts took Stanford’s Andrew Luck as the first overall pick in the draft and he has performed beyond expectations.  He has the Colts in the playoff hunt after the team won only 2 games during 2011.  Further the team has rallied in the face of adversity with their coach being forced off the sidelines to battle leukemia.  Thankfully he is in remission.

Overall a win-win for both teams, both teams are so far being rewarded for the investments they made in Manning and Luck.

Just as with these blog posts, it’s a good idea to revisit your reasons for making financial and investment decisions to see if things panned out as you had thought at the time.  This is not to second guess yourself, but rather to reexamine your assumptions to see if you need to adjust your decision making process in the future. 

As always please feel free to contact me with your financial planning questions.

Photo credit:  Wikipedia

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Risk, Reward, and Peyton Manning

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Peyton Manning

Ok this is what you get for reading a blog written by a financial advisor who is also a pro football fanatic. Peyton Manning is a certain Hall of Famer and undoubtedly one of the true “class acts” in the world of professional sports. The decision by the Colts to release him and the sweepstakes to sign him by a reported 12 NFL teams provides some great examples of assessing risk and reward that are applicable to investing as well.

Know when to cut your losses. No matter what the Colt’s owners might say, the decision was in large part driven by the $28 million bonus due to Peyton on March 8. Couple this with his uncertain health, the fact that the Colts have the top pick in the upcoming draft, and the fact that they are clearly in rebuilding mode and you have a classic decision by the Colts to cut their losses and move on. Investors need to have this mentality in viewing their investments as well. Let’s say you buy a promising stock. It’s now down 15%. Do you hang on or do you sell and cut your losses? The answer lies in your assessment of the potential upside of holding the stock. If you still feel the stock has the same upside as when you bought it keep it, if you feel the money could better be deployed elsewhere, sell. In the case of the Colts they clearly feel that Andrew Luck is better investment going forward than is Peyton Manning.

Always assess the downside risk and the upside potential of your portfolio. Investing, in my opinion is about the level of risk you assume first, then about the potential upside. For the teams bidding on Manning the expected upside is a trip to the Super Bowl. There are any number of teams that are a top-flight quarterback away from a deep playoff run. What’s the downside? First if Manning can’t play or play at a level near what he has shown throughout his career they’ve spent a lot of money (I don’t expect Manning to come cheap) without reaping the hoped for reward. The other downside risk is that a developing young quarterback (Tim Tebow, Mark Sanchez, Matt Schaub, etc.) finds their career derailed and never develops into the long-term star their teams expect.

Is the risk worth the potential reward? This is a question all investors should ask on a continuous basis about the configuration of their portfolio and about the individual holdings within their portfolio. In the case of Peyton Manning my question is why would this guy ever set foot on a football field again? I’m not a doctor, but 3 or 4 neck surgeries would be more than enough to tell me that I don’t want to take the risk of serious injury that could undoubtedly occur from being hit by a 300 pound defensive lineman. I just don’t see any potential upside for him that would be worth the risk of serious injury. As a fan I hope that we have seen Peyton play for the last time, for his sake and the sake of his family.

Feel free to contact me if you need help reviewing your portfolio to determine if you have the right risk/reward balance.

Photo credit:  Flickr

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