Objective information about financial planning, investments, and retirement plans

Time for a Mid-Year Financial Review

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It’s hard to believe that the first half of the year has come and gone already.  We enjoyed having all three of our adult children home over the holiday weekend.

Financial Review

Mid-year is always a good time for a financial review and 2014 is no exception.  So far in 2014:

  • Various stock market indexes are at or near record high levels. The Bull Market in stocks celebrated its fifth anniversary earlier this year and through June 30 the S&P 500 Index is up 190% since the March 2009 lows.
  • Bond funds and ETFs have surprised us by posting some pretty decent returns.  This is contrary to what many expected, especially in the wake of weak performance in 2013.
  • After largely not participating in the in the strong equity markets of 2013 REITS have been a top performing asset class YTD through the second quarter.
  • Emerging markets equity lost money as an asset class in 2013 and has also staged a nice recovery YTD through the first half of 2014.
  • Small cap stocks have underperformed so far in 2014 after a very outstanding 2013. 

In just about any year at the midpoint there will be asset classes that outperformed and some that have underperformed expectations.  That’s completely normal.  As far as your mid-year financial review here are a few things to consider.  These apply whether you do this yourself or if you are working with a financial advisor.

Review your financial plan 

Whether you do this now or at some other point in the year you should review your financial plan at least annually.  Given the robust stock market gains of the past five years this is a particularity opportune time for this review.

  • How are you tracking towards your financial goals?
  • Have your investment gains put you further ahead than anticipated?
  • Is it time to rethink the level of investment risk in your portfolio? 

Adjust your 401(k) deferral

If you aren’t on track to defer the maximum amount of your salary allowed ($17,500 or $23,000 if you are 50 or over at any point in 2014) try to up the percentage of your salary being deferred to the extent that you can.  Every little bit helps when saving for retirement.

Rebalance your portfolio 

This should be a standard in your financial playbook.  Different types of investments will perform differently at different times which can cause your overall portfolio to be out of balance with your target.  Too much money allocated to stocks can, for example, cause you to assume more risk than you had anticipated.

While it is a good idea to review your asset allocation at regular intervals, you don’t want to overdo rebalancing either.  I generally suggest that 401(k) participants whose plan offers auto rebalancing set the frequency to every six months.  More frequent rebalancing might be appropriate if market conditions have caused your portfolio to be severely misallocated.

Note some investment strategies call for a more tactical approach which is fine.  If you are using such a tactical approach (perhaps via an ETF strategist) you will still want to monitor what this manager is doing and that their strategy fits your plan and tolerance for risk.

Review your individual investments 

Certainly you will not want to make decisions about any investment holdings based upon short-term results but here are a few things to take into account during your mid-year financial review:

  • If you hold individual stocks where are they in relation to your target sell price?
  • Have there been key personnel changes in the management of your actively managed mutual funds?
  • Are any of your mutual funds suffering from asset bloat due to solid performance or perhaps just the greed of the mutual fund company?
  • Are the expense ratios of your index mutual funds and ETFs among the lowest available to you?
  • Has your company retirement plan added or removed any investment options?
  • Is the Target Date Fund option in your 401(k) plan really the best place for your retirement contributions? 

Review your company benefits 

I know its July but your annual Open Enrollment for employee benefits at most employers is coming up in the fall.  This is the time where you can adjust your various benefits such as health insurance, dental, etc.  Take a look at your benefits usage and your family situation as part of your financial review to see if you might need to consider adjustments in the fall.

Review your career status 

How are things going in your current job?  Are you on a solid career path?  Is it time for a change either internally or with a new employer?

A key question to ask yourself is whether you feel in danger of losing your job.  Often companies will time their layoffs for the second half of the year.  Ask yourself if approached with a buyout offer to leave would you take it.

For most of us our job is our major source of income and the vehicle that allows us to save and invest to meet financial goals such as retirement and sending our kids to college.

Start a self-employed retirement plan 

If you are self-employed you need to think about starting a retirement plan for yourself.  The SEP-IRA and the Solo 401(k) are two of the most common self-employed retirement plans, but there are other alternatives as well.

You work too hard not to save for your retirement.  If you don’t have plan in place for yourself it is time to take action.

Mid-year is a great time for a financial review.  Take some time and take stock of your situation.  Failing to plan your financial future is a plan to fail financially.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. 

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What I’m Reading – Memorial Day Edition

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The Memorial Day weekend is looking like a good one in terms of the weather here in the Chicago area.  It should be a great weekend for family fun and for any activities that you may have planned.  Let’s not forget what Memorial Day is all about though and give thanks to our current and former members of the military for all they have sacrificed for us.

Here are some financial articles that I’ve read lately that you might find interesting and useful.  

Josh Brown offers his unique insights into the thought process behind brokers who sell non-traded REITS to clients as only he can in Scenes from an Independent Brokerage Firm at The Reformed Broker.

Wade Slome discusses the Rise of the Robo-Advisors: Paying to Do-It-Yourself at Investing Caffine.

Jim Blankenship shares Mechanics of 401(k) Plan – Vesting shedding light on this often misunderstood aspect of 401(k) plans at Getting Your Financial Ducks in a Row.

Ryan Guina offers the AAFES Coupon Guide – How to Save Big at the Exchanges a guide to savings for eligible shoppers at the Army Air Force Exchange service at The Military Wallet.

Emily Guy Birken discusses What You Need to Know About Disability Insurance for the Self-Employed at PT Money.

Mitch Tuchman tells us that Advice seekers retire with 79% more money at Market Watch.  Food for thought for retirement investors.

Russ Kinnel tells us to Lower Your Fees, Boost Your Returns at Morningstar.  Always good advice for mutual fund investors. 

If you are new to The Chicago Financial Planner here are our three most popular posts over the past 30 days:

Life Insurance as a Retirement Savings Vehicle – A Good Idea? 

Financial Advisors to Follow on Social Media

Peyton Manning and Investment Success

I hope you enjoy some of these articles and have a great holiday weekend.

Looking for a good read this weekend, check out Still Standing by Major (ret) Steve Hirst. Steve was a year behind me in high school and was severely injured in an auto accident while serving in Alaska in the mid 1990s. The book is well written and provides an inspriational account of his long road back and some of the obstacles Steve faced along the way.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra.

 

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services.

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Are Alternative Investments the Right Alternative for You?

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Alternative investments are all the rage these days.  Mutual fund companies are falling all over themselves to sell financial advisors and their clients on “liquid alts” or hedge fund-like strategies with the daily liquidity offered in a mutual fund wrapper.  Hedge funds were allowed to advertise due to a change in the rules last year.  The financial press is filled with articles about alternatives and the fund companies are offering numerous webinars and conferences covering them.

Are alternative investment strategies right for your portfolio?  I have no idea but here are some questions to ask as well as some information for you to consider.

What is an alternative investment strategy?

Alternatives are basically investment vehicles that aren’t purely stocks, bonds, or cash. The purpose of alternatives is generally to diversify an investment portfolio.  Ideally these strategies will have a low correlation to other investment vehicles in your portfolio.  Examples of alternative strategies include:

  • Hedge funds
  • Unconstrained fixed income
  • Macro strategy funds
  • Commodities and managed futures
  • Real estate
  • Precious metals
  • Long/short equity
  • Convertible arbitrage
  • Private equity
  • Vulture funds
  • Venture funds
  • Merger arbitrage 

As mentioned above, these strategies are available in the more traditional hedge fund format, as mutual funds, ETFs, and as fund of funds in each of these formats.

Consider this before investing in alternatives 

Before buying an alternative fund or product here are a few questions to consider:

  • Do you understand the underlying investment strategy?
  • What benefit will this investment provide to your overall portfolio?  Reduced volatility?  Low correlation to other holdings?
  • What are the expenses? Are they justified given the expected benefit of investing in this alterative fund?
  • Are there any restrictions on redeeming your investment? Typically (but not always) with a mutual fund or ETF the answer is no, hedge funds may have a lockup period or other restrictions.
  • Have this fund’s performance been tested in real market conditions or just back-tested on a computer?
  • Who’s managing the fund?  What is their background and track record? 

I am actually a fan of alternatives and have used several mutual funds of this type for a number of years.

Remember though, large endowments like those of the Ivy League schools use alternative investments extensively and successfully.  Unlike you they have access to the expertise needed to perform proper due diligence. Does the financial advisor recommending these funds to you really understand them? Be sure that you do before investing in any alternative investment product.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. 

 

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services

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Is Your Mutual Fund Bloated and Should You Care?

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Asset bloat in a mutual fund is akin to the situation we’ve all found ourselves in while dining out.  Our meal is fantastic and we can’t stop eating it even though we know we’ll feel lousy and bloated if we don’t stop.  Mutual fund asset bloat can also be a big problem for investors.

What is asset bloat? 

Asset bloat is simply a large increase in the assets managed by a given mutual fund.  Asset bloat is typically not an issue for index funds or money market funds, but it certainly can be for actively managed stock and bond mutual funds.

Asset bloat can be caused by an influx of new money into a mutual fund, often the result of a period of superior performance by the fund.  It has been my experience over the years that investor money chases good performance.  Asset bloat can also be organic in nature via the fund’s investment gains.

Morningstar’s Russ Kinnel wrote an excellent piece on mutual fund bloat that you should check out.

Why is asset bloat a problem? 

At some point an actively managed mutual fund can become too large for the manager(s) to effectively manage.  As an example, Peter Lynch was the legendary manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund (FMAGX).  Lynch managed the fund from 1977 until 1990 during which time the fund’s assets grew from about $18 million to about $13 billion.  During this time period the fund’s average annual return was 29%.

At the end of the decade of the 1990s the fund’s assets had hit $100 billion, ultimately dropping to today’s level of about $16 billion.  Subsequent to Lunch’s departure the fund’s performance never hit the levels seen during Lynch’s tenure.  I have to believe that this was in part due to the massive growth in the fund’s assets.

This phenomenon is especially problematic in mutual funds that invest in small and mid-cap stocks.  Due to the smaller market capitalization of the underlying holdings in these funds at some point it becomes difficult for the manager to find enough good stock ideas within the fund’s mandate to continue to deliver the top performance that was responsible for the asset growth in the first place.

There have been many instances of small and mid-cap funds that have grown to be so large they have started to invest in larger stocks and ultimately have migrated to another investment style, for example from mid to large cap.

How can funds curb asset bloat? 

Close the fund to new money.  I always respect mutual funds that shut off purchases by new investors in the interest of benefiting existing shareholders.  More assets under management means more money for the fund company.  A shining example of a fund that does this is Sequoia (SEQUX) which has been closed for most of the past 25 years.  The fund’s long-term track record is exemplary.

Start losing money or underperforming.  I say this only partially tongue and cheek.  Nothing will reduce mutual fund assets like a period of underperformance.  Just ask the folks at Fidelity Magellan.  Just as investor money often chases superior mutual fund performance it also has a tendency to flee poor performance.

As Russ Kinnel points out in the Morningstar piece referenced earlier, asset bloat is a symptom of the solid stock market performance we have seen over the past five years.  This is not to say that a large fund cannot be effectively managed.  Case in point is Fidelity Contra (FCNTX).  Manager Will Danoff has done a credible job given the sheer volume of money under his management.  On the other hand American Funds Growth Fund of America (AGTHX) has been called a “closet index fund” meaning that its investments are extremely closely correlated to its benchmark Russell 1000 Growth Index.

For investors in actively managed mutual funds it is important to monitor the fund’s size as one of the indicators that you look at in your periodic review of your mutual fund holdings.  No single indicator is a reason onto itself in determining whether to hold onto a fund or consider selling it, but several key indicators viewed together can help you understand what is happening with your fund holdings.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services.

The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com. If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. Click on the Amazon banner below to go directly to the main site or check out the financial planning related selections in our Book Store.

 

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4 Considerations When Evaluating Active Mutual Funds

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It’s spring here in Chicago (fingers crossed), the baseball season opened yesterday, and the first quarter of the year is in the books.  This means that you will be receiving statements from your 401(k) and your various investment accounts.  For many investors mutual funds comprise a significant percentage of their portfolio.  Here are 4 things to consider when evaluating actively managed mutual fund holdings.

Who’s running the show? 

Even with index mutual funds the manager(s) of the fund are a consideration.  However the management of the fund is a vital consideration when evaluating an actively managed fund.

Davis New York Venture (DNVYX) is an actively managed large cap blend fund with a long track record of success under two long-tenured co-managers.  When one of these co-managers unexpectedly left at the end of 2013 this was a cause of concern in evaluating the fund.  The fact that Davis moved quickly to replace this manager with an experienced member of the team at Davis was reassuring.  The fund continued its solid relative performance in the first quarter of 2014 after a solid 2013, which was preceded by three very sub-par years.  It is too early to tell what impact the management change with have on the long-term performance of the fund and this will bear close scrutiny.

Another example is the veritable soap-opera unfolding at PIMco over the departure of former Co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian.  While El-Erian didn’t manage many of PIMco’s funds, I’m guessing the whole situation was a distraction to CEO and founder Bill Gross who is also the manager of the firm’s flagship fund PIMco Total Return (PTTRX).  While this situation may not have been the cause, the fund finished in the bottom 15% of its peers in the first quarter.  This is on the heels of sub-par performances in calendar 2011 and 2013, though the fund ranks the top 5% of its peers over the trailing ten years all under Bill Gross’ leadership.

It is not uncommon for a fund that has achieved a solid track record over time to see the manager who was responsible for achieving that track record move on.  It is important when looking a mutual fund with a stellar track record to understand if the manager(s) responsible for this track record are still on board.

Size matters 

One of the truisms that I’ve noticed over the years is that good performance attracts new money.  Even if a top fund is responsible enough to its shareholders to close the doors to new investors before asset bloat sets in, the assets inside the fund might still balloon due to investment gains.  Two closed funds that I applaud for putting their shareholders first are Artisan Mid Cap Value (ARTQX) and Sequoia (SEQUX).

I’ve seen several formerly excellent actively managed mutual funds continue to take on new money to detriment of their shareholders.  Asset bloat can be a huge issue especially for equity mutual funds that invest in small and mid cap stocks.  At some point the managers have trouble putting all of this extra money to work and can be faced with investing in stock with larger market capitalizations.  At this point the fund might have the same name, but it is likely a far different fund than it was at its inception.

Closet index funds

According to a 2011 article in Reuters: 

Since the height of the U.S. financial crisis, more funds are playing it safe, hugging their benchmarks and sometimes earning the unwanted reputation as “closet indexers.” 

About one-third of U.S. mutual fund assets, amounting to several trillion dollars, are with closet indexers, according to research published last year by Antti Petajisto, a former Yale University professor who now works for BlackRock Inc. 

In general, Petajisto defines a closet indexer as a fund with less than 60 percent of its investments differing from its benchmark.” 

I was quoted in this 2012 piece in Investment News discussing closet indexers.  As the article mentions a fund is considered a closet indexer when its R2 ratio (a measure of correlation) reaches 95 in comparison to its benchmark.  In the example of American Funds Growth Fund of America this benchmark index would be the Russell 1000 Growth Index.

The point here is that if you are going to pay up in terms of an actively managed fund’s higher expense ratio, you should receive something in the way of better performance and/or perhaps better downside risk management over and above that which would be delivered by an index mutual fund or ETF.

An example of a an actively managed fund that you might consider being worth its expense ratio is the above-mentioned Sequoia Fund.  A hypothetical $10,000 investment in the fund at its inception on 7/15/1970 held through 12/31/13 would be worth $3,891,872.  The $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 Index (if this was possible) would have grown to $901,620 over the same period.  This fund suffered a much milder loss than did the S&P 500 in 2008 (-27.03% vs. 37.00%) and outgained the index considerably in challenging 2011 (13.19% vs. 2.11%).  Sequoia’s R2 ratio is 80.

R2 can be found on a fund’s Morningstar page under the Ratings and Risk section of the page.

Performance is relative 

Superior performance is an obvious motivation, but you should always make sure to compare the performance of a given mutual fund to other funds in the same peer group.  A good comparison would be to compare a Small Cap Value mutual fund to other funds in this peer group.  A comparison to Foreign Large Value fund would be far less useful and in my opinion irrelevant.

Unfortunately superior active mutual funds are often the exception rather than the rule, one reason I make extensive use of index mutual funds and ETFs.  However solid, well-run actively managed funds can add to a portfolio.  Finding them and monitoring their performance does take work.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss  all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services.

The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com. If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. Click on the Amazon banner below to go directly to the main site or check out the selections on financial planning and related topics in our Book Store.

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3 Considerations When Opening an IRA Account

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As we head toward April 15 it is now high IRA season for the major brokerage and financial services firms.   You will undoubtedly see many TV commercials and ads by these firms touting the benefits of opening an IRA with their firm.  Here are 3 things to consider as you evaluate your best IRA account options.

Understanding your retirement

How much will this cost me? 

Some firms may charge a fee just to have the account.  This might be on the order of $25 or $50 annually.  If your balance is relatively low this can be a significant bite.  Sometimes these fees are based on the size of your account balance.

Additionally you will want to understand any and all transaction fees.  This might include trading fees for buying and selling stocks, ETFs, or other exchange-traded investment vehicles.  Certain mutual funds might carry a transaction cost as well.

If you are working with a commission-based financial advisor understand how he or she is compensated.  Will the funds in the IRA account they are advocating carry sales charges or high internal fees to compensate them?

Is this custodian a good fit with my investing needs? 

This runs the gamut.  Certainly the fees mentioned above are part of this.  Beyond this look at how you invest and the vehicles in which you invest.

For example if you use ETFs extensively does this custodian offer any commission-free ETFs?  If so are these the ETFs that you would use?

As an example if you were planning on using Vanguard mutual funds exclusively it might make sense to house your IRA there.  On the other hand if you were looking to use funds from a variety of families perhaps a custodian that is more of a fund supermarket like Schwab or Fidelity is more appropriate for you.

Beyond an IRA account is this custodian a good fit for my needs in terms of other types of accounts such as a taxable brokerage account?  Do they offer the full array of services that I might need?  In my experience having an IRA at one custodian plus other accounts scattered around several other custodians is rarely a good idea.

Should I roll my 401(k) to an IRA or leave in my old employers plan? 

One of the primary reasons that investors open an IRA during the year is to roll their old 401(k) account over when leaving a job.

If you are leaving your employer whether to roll your 401(k) balance over to an IRA, leave it in your old employer’s plan, or roll it to your new employer’s plan (if applicable) is a critical decision.

There are good  reasons to move your account balance to an IRA which could include:

  • Your old employer’s 401(k) plan is lousy (as is your new employer’s if applicable).
  • A desire to consolidate all of your various retirement accounts into a single IRA to make management of your investments easier.
  • Access to a wider selection of quality investment options than might be available via your old employer’s plan.
  • Perhaps you are working with a trusted financial advisor and the rollover with allow them to better integrate this money with your overall investment strategy. 

On the other hand two reasons to consider either leaving your money in your old employer’s plan or rolling it into your new employer’s plan (if applicable):

  • The plan offers a menu of low cost institutional investments that might not be available to you via a rollover IRA.  This is often the case with very large employers with tremendous buying power, but also with smaller plans who use a competent outside investment advisor.
  • Similar to the last bullet, the plan offers specific investment options that you would be unable to match in an IRA. 

An IRA, either Traditional or Roth, is a great vehicle to help you win the retirement gamble.  Before opening an IRA account you need to do your homework just as with any investing decision.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss  all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services. 

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Target Date Funds: Does the Glide Path Matter?

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Most Target Date Funds are funds of the mutual funds of the fund family offering the TDF.  The pitch is to invest in the fund with a target date closest to your projected retirement date and “… we’ll do the rest….”  A key element of Target Date Funds is their Glide Path into retirement.  Stated another way the Glide Path is the gradual decline in the allocation to equities into and during retirement.  Should the fund’s Glide Path matter to you as an investor?

Glide PathTarget Date Funds have become a big part of the 401(k) landscape with many plans offering TDFs as an option for participants who don’t want to make their own investment choices.  Target Date Funds have also grown in popularity since the Pension Protection Act of 2006 included TDFs as a safe harbor option for plan sponsors to use for participants who do not make an investment election for their salary deferrals and/or any company match.

These funds are big business for the likes of Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price who control somewhere around 70% of the assets in these funds.  Major fund families such as Blackrock, JP Morgan Funds, and the American Funds also offer a full menu of these funds.  Ideally for the fund company you will leave you money in a TDF with them when you retire or leave your employer, either in the plan or via a rollover to an IRA.

What is a Glide Path?

The allocation of the fund to equities will gradually decrease over time.  For example Vanguard’s 2060 Target Date Fund had an equity allocation of almost 88% at the end of 2013.  By contrast the 2015 fund had an equity allocation of approximately 52%.

This gradual decrease continues through retirement for many TDF families including the “Big 3” until the equity allocation levels out conceivably until the shareholder’s death.  T. Rowe Price has traditionally had one of the longest Glide Paths with equities not leveling out until the investor is past 80.  The Fidelity and Vanguard funds level out earlier, though past age 65.

There are some TDF families where the glide path levels out at retirement and there is some debate in the industry whether “To” or “Through” retirement is the better strategy for a fund’s Glide Path.

Should you care about the Glide Path? 

The fund families offering Target Date Funds put a lot of research into their Glide Paths and make it a selling point for the funds.  The slope of the Glide Path influences the asset allocation throughout the target date years of an investor’s retirement accumulation years.  The real issue is whether the post-retirement Glide Path is right for you as an investor.

On the one hand if you might be inclined to use your Target Date Fund as an investment vehicle into retirement, as the mutual fund companies hope, then this is a critical issue for you.

On the other hand if you would be inclined to roll your 401(k) account over to either an IRA or a new employer’s retirement plan upon leaving your company then the Glide Path really doesn’t make a whole lot of difference to you as an investor in my opinion.

In either case investing in a Target Date Fund whether you are a 401(k) participant saving for retirement or a retiree is the ultimate “one size fits all” investment.  In the case of the Glide Path this is completely true.  If you feel that the Glide Path of a given Target Date Fund is in synch with your investment needs and risk tolerance into retirement then it might be the way to go for you.

Conversely many people have a number of investment accounts and vehicles as they head into retirement.  Besides their 401(k) there might be a spouse’s 401(k), other retirement accounts including IRAs, taxable investments, annuities, an interest in a business, real estate, and others.

In short, Target Date Funds are a growing part of the 401(k) landscape and I’m guessing a profitable way for mutual fund companies to gather assets.  They also represent a potentially sound alternative for investors looking for a professionally managed investment vehicle.  The Glide Path is a key element in the efforts to keep these investors in the Target Date Fund potentially for life.  Before going this route make sure you understand how the TDF invests, the length and slope of the Glide Path, the fund’s underlying expenses, and overall how the fund’s investments fit with everything else you may doing to plan for and manage a comfortable retirement.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss your 401(k) plan and all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services. 

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The Super Bowl and Your Investments

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Lombardi Trophy - Super Bowl XXXI

It’s Super Bowl time and once again my beloved Packers are not playing.  At least they beat the hated Bears to make the playoffs.  Every year the Super Bowl Indicator is resurrected as a forecasting tool for the stock market.

This indicator says that a win by a team from the old pre-merger NFL is bullish for the stock market, while a win by a team from the old AFL is a bad sign for the markets.  Looking at this year’s game, Denver is an original AFL team while Seattle is neither.  The Seahawks came into existence in the 1970s (post-merger) first as an NFC team, then moved to the AFC, and are now back in the NFC.  To me this disqualifies them from this “scientific” prognostication tool but what do I know?

According to a recent Wall Street Journal article the indicator seems to work around 70% of the  time mostly because old NFL teams (which include the Steelers, Colts, and Ravens) have won a majority of the time (there is a 70% probability of this according to the WSJ article).  A notable exception occurred when the Broncos won in 1998 and 1999 and the stock market went up both years.

What should you do?

My suggestion is to enjoy the game, the halftime show, the commercials, and eat plenty of unhealthy food.

As far as your investments, I think you’ll agree that the outcome of the game should not dictate your strategy.  Rather I suggest an investment strategy that incorporates some basic blocking and tackling:

  • A financial plan should be the basis of your strategy.  Any investment strategy that does not incorporate your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance is a bit flawed.
  • Take stock of where you are.  Have the strong stock market of 2013 and the almost five year rally since March of 2009 caused your portfolio to be over weight in equities?   If so perhaps it’s time to rebalance.
  • Costs matter.  Low cost index mutual funds and ETFs can be great core holdings.  Solid, well-managed active funds can also contribute to a well-diversified portfolio.  In all cases make sure you are in the lowest cost share classes available to you.
  • View all accounts as part of a total portfolio.  This means IRAs, your 401(k), taxable accounts, mutual funds, individual stocks and bonds, etc.  Each individual holding should serve a purpose in terms of your overall strategy.  

As far as the game, it should be a good one.  I suspect we will root for Seattle only because of Pete Carroll (we are USC fans and the proud parents of a 2010 USC grad).  On the other hand how can you not like Peyton Manning?

How has the Super Bowl Indicator done?

Going back to the game played in 2000 (following the 1999 season) the Super Bowl Indicator has been right 8 times, wrong 5 times, with one that I would call not applicable.  The 2003 game saw Tampa Bay an NFC team that came into existence post-merger won and the market (defined as the S&P 500 for this analysis) did go up so I will leave it to you be the judge on this one.

Notable misses during this time period:

  • St. Louis (an old NFL team) won in 2000 and the market dropped.
  • Baltimore (an old NFL team that was formerly the original Cleveland Browns) won in 2001 and the market dropped.
  • The New York Giants (an old NFL team) won in 2008 and the market tanked in what was the start of the recent financial crisis.

The Super Bowl Indicator is another fun piece of Super Bowl hype.  Your investment strategy should be guided by a financial plan, not the outcome of a football game.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your financial planning and investing questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services. 

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Shake-Up at PIMco – Should Investors Care?

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The big news in the mutual fund world this past week was the announcement that PIMco Co-Chairman Mohamed El-Erian will be resigning from the firm effective in March.  El-Erian is a frequent guest on CNBC and a really smart guy.  This has been a huge story in the financial press.  As an investor should you care?

Mohamed el Erian - World Economic Forum Summit...

Some background 

PIMco was founded by the soon to be sole Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross.  PIMco is perhaps the preeminent bond mutual fund shop.  Many financial advisors, including yours truly, have client assets invested with them.  Their flagship bond fund PIMco Total Return (PTTRX) has had middling results the past couple of years and experienced significant fund outflows in 2013.

El-Erian is the second key executive to leave the firm recently preceded by the retirement of Paul McCulley in 2010.  Some say El-Erian’s departure is an outgrowth of PIMco’s rough year in 2013.

What others are saying 

Jeff Benjamin of Investment News wrote:

“Even as speculation ranges from whether the highly regarded and high-profile economic strategist was forced out or simply burned out, the general consensus is that Mr. El-Erian’s departure will not hurt Pimco‘s reputation or asset management prowess. 

“The news was an incredible surprise, and we have a number of clients with investments in Pimco funds,” said Richard Konrad, managing partner at Value Architects Asset Management. 

 “But at the same time, the issue of talent within the Pimco organization is unquestionable,” he added. “Even without [Mr. El-Erian], the essence of the firm remains, along with a track record that has been established over many years.”” 

The New York Times Dealbook said:

“The move was surprising because Mr. El-Erian, 55, has been the public face of Pimco since he rejoined the company in 2007, taking some of the spotlight from the company’s famous founder and co-chief investment officer, William H. Gross. 

In 2012, Mr. Gross said, “Mohamed is my heir apparent.” On Tuesday, by contrast, Mr. Gross took to Twitter to announce: “I’m ready to go for another 40 years.” That would take Mr. Gross to his 109th birthday. 

Mr. El-Erian’s resignation underscores the upheaval in the investment world as rising interest rates put an end to a bond bull market that lasted for decades and helped build industry giants like Pimco and BlackRock.” 

My take on the PIMco announcement 

PIMco is a very solid fund company with a deep bench of talented managers and researchers that offers a number of very solid mutual funds, closed-end funds, and ETFs.  They are best known as fixed income managers, which going forward will be a tough place to be for any firm.

On the other hand company literature has often mentioned the use of a consensus model called their Secular Outlook developed as the result of an annual meeting of PIMco personnel.  One has to wonder with El-Erian and McCully gone will Bill Gross dominate the discussion here or will others within the organization be able to step up and balance Mr. Goss’ views?  More importantly does PIMco have or are they in the process of developing a succession plan? As youthful as Mr. Gross looks at 69 I’m not counting on him being around PIMco for another 40 years as he indicated he is “… ready to go…”

This situation brings to mind Janus Funds, one of the preeminent go-go growth mutual fund houses of the 1980s and 1990s.  Beginning with the departure of star manager Jim Craig in 1999 and followed by the market drop of 2000-2002, several corporate restructurings, involvement in the mutual fund scandal of the early 2000s, and an awful lot of fund manager and executive turnover this company has never been the same.  I’m not saying PIMco will follow suit, but the potential parallels are there.

My strategy is simple.  I plan to watch the overall situation with the firm and to continue to evaluate my client’s PIMco holdings in the same fashion as before this announcement.  In my opinion this management shake-up is not a cause for any immediate or drastic action, but time will tell.

Personnel issues with a mutual fund and or its parent company are a valid reason to place a fund or a family of funds on your watch list.  This is generally a component of an Investment Policy Statement.  Do you have an orderly due diligence process in place to react to changes in your mutual funds and those in charge of managing them?

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your financial planning and investing questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services. 

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7 Year-End 2013 Financial Planning Tips

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Thanksgiving is behind us and we are in the home stretch of 2013.  While your thoughts might be on shopping and getting ready for the holidays, there are a number of financial planning tasks that still need your attention.  Here are 7 financial planning tips for the end of the year.

Use appreciated investments for charitable donations

 If you would normally contribute to charity why not donate appreciated stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, closed-end funds, etc.?  The value of doing this is that you receive credit for the market value of the donated securities and avoid paying the capital gains on the appreciation.  A few things to keep in mind:

  • This only works with investments held in a taxable account.
  • This is not a good strategy for investments in which you have an unrealized loss.  Here it is better to sell the investment, realize the loss and donate the cash.

 

English: A bauble on a Christmas tree.

 

Harvest losses from your portfolio

The thought here is to review investments held in taxable accounts and sell all or some of them with unrealized losses.  These may be a bit harder to come by this year given the appreciation in the stock market.  Bond funds and other fixed income investments might be your best bet here.

The benefit of this strategy is that realized losses can be offset against capital gains to mitigate the tax due.  There are a number of nuances to be aware of here, including the Wash Sale Rules, so be sure you’ve done your research and/or consulted with your tax or financial advisor before proceeding.

Establish a Solo 401(k) 

If you are self-employed and haven’t done so already consider opening a Solo 401(k) account.  The Solo 401(k) can be an excellent retirement planning vehicle for the self-employed.  If you want to contribute for 2013 the account must be opened by December 31.  You then have until the date that you file your tax return, including extensions, to make your 2013 contributions. 

Rebalance your portfolio

With the tremendous gains in the stock market so far this year, your portfolio might be overly allocated to equities if you haven’t rebalanced lately.  The problem with letting your equity allocation just run with the market is that you may be taking more risk than you had intended or more than is appropriate for your situation.

Rebalance with a total portfolio view.  Use tax-deferred accounts such as IRAs and 401(k)s to your best advantage.  Donating appreciated investments to charity can help.  You can also use new money to shore up under allocated portions of your portfolio to reduce the need to sell winners.

Review your 401(k) options 

This is the time of the year when many companies update their 401(k) investment menus both by adding new investment options and replacing some funds with new choices.  This often coincides with the open enrollment process for employee benefits and is a good time for you to review any changes and update your investment choices if appropriate.

Be careful when buying into mutual funds 

Many mutual fund companies issue distributions from the funds for dividends and capital gains around the end of the year.  These distributions are based upon owning the fund on the date the distribution is declared.  If you are not careful you could be the recipient of a distribution even though you’ve only owned the fund for a short time.  You would be fully liable for any taxes due on this distribution.  This of course only pertains to mutual fund investments made in taxable accounts.

Required Minimum Distributions 

If you are 70 ½ or older you are required to take a minimum distribution from your IRAs and other retirement accounts.  The amount required is based upon your account balance as of the end of the prior year and is based on IRS tables.  Account custodians are required to calculate your RMD and report this amount to the IRS.

Note beneficiaries of inherited IRAs may also be required to take an RMD if the deceased individual was taking RMDs at the time of his/her death.

If you have multiple accounts with multiple custodians you need to take a total distribution based upon all of these accounts, though you can pick and choose from which accounts you’d like to take the distribution.  Make sure to take your distribution by the end of the year otherwise you will be faced with a stiff penalty of 50% of the amount you did not take on top of the income taxes normally due.

If you turned 70 ½ this year you can delay your first distribution to April 1 of next year, but that means that you will need to take two distributions next year with the corresponding tax liability.  Also if you are still working and are not a 5% or greater owner of your company you do not need to take a distribution from your 401(k) with that employer.  You do, however, need to take the distribution on all remaining retirement accounts.

For those who take required minimum distributions and who are otherwise charitably inclined, you have the option of diverting some or all of your distribution via a provision called the qualified charitable distribution (QCD).  The advantage is that this portion of your RMD is not treated as a taxable income and may have a favorable impact on the amount of Social Security that is subject to income taxes for 2014 and other potential benefits.  Note that you can’t double dip and also take this as a deductible charitable contribution.  Consult with the custodian of your IRA or retirement plan for the logistics of executing this transaction.

With all of the strategies mentioned above I recommend that you consult with a qualified tax or financial advisor to ensure  that the strategy is right for your unique situation and if so that you execute it properly. 

Certainly year-end is about the holidays, family, friends, food, and football.  It is also a great time to take execute some final year-end financial planning moves that can have a big payoff and in the case of RMDs save you from some hefty penalties.

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of  your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services.  

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