Objective information about financial planning, investments, and retirement plans

5 Tips to Manage Taxable Mutual Fund Distributions


With the end of the year in sight it’s time for year-end mutual fund distributions. If you hold mutual funds in taxable accounts, these distributions will be taxable to you.

taxable mutual fund distributions


Even with the weakness in the stock market earlier in the year, many mutual funds have gains embedded from a six plus year bull market. There is nothing more frustrating than to have a mutual fund deliver mediocre performance in a given year and then get socked with large, taxable mutual fund distributions.

Short of selling the funds, which may or may not a good idea, here are 5 tips to manage taxable mutual fund distributions.

Don’t buy the distribution 

During November and December mutual fund companies will publish information about fund distributions on their websites. If you are looking to add to a position or start a new position in a mutual fund in a taxable account it is important that you know the dates of these distributions and take the anticipated distribution into account. You don’t want to buy a fund shortly before a significant distribution and then owe taxes on the distribution only having owned the fund for a short time.

Even if you reinvest distributions on mutual funds held in a taxable account the distributions are still taxable in the year received. These distributions can be added to your cost basis in fund which can take a bit of the sting out of this.

Consider tax-loss harvesting to offset capital gains distributions 

As you go through your taxable accounts near the end of the year consider selling holdings with a loss to offset some of the capital gains distributions from your funds.

Just as with gains and losses generated from the sale of investments, long-term capital gains are matched against long-term capital losses and likewise with short-term capital gains and losses.

Tax-loss harvesting or any tax strategy should only be used if it makes sense from an investment point of view.

Index funds are not a cure-all for taxable mutual fund distributions

Index funds tracking standard broad-market indexes are generally pretty tax-efficient. That doesn’t mean that this will be the case each and every year. Further index funds and ETFs tracking small and mid-cap indexes may need to make more transactions in order to track their respective indexes.

As smart beta products become more popular they will likely be less tax-efficient than more common market-cap weighted index products. Smart beta funds will likely need to buy and sell more frequently in order to rebalance to the their underlying benchmark than more standard index products, potentially resulting in larger capital gains distributions.

Don’t let the tax tail wag the investment dog 

While it is aggravating to receive large taxable mutual fund distributions, it is rarely a good idea to sell an investment holding solely for tax reasons.

Mutual fund distributions are one of three types:

  • Dividends
  • Short-term capital gains
  • Long-term capital gains

All three have different tax implications.

Ordinary dividends and short-term capital gains are taxed at your highest marginal ordinary income tax rate. Long-term capital gains are taxed at preferential rates ranging from 15% to 20% with higher income tax payers subject to the 3.8% Medicare tax. Qualified dividends are taxed at these same rates as well.

That said it is important to pay attention to the tax efficiency of the mutual funds that you are using in your taxable accounts. 

Consider distributions when looking to rebalance 

Year-end is a good time to look at rebalancing your entire portfolio, both taxable and tax-deferred accounts.  As you look to rebalance your portfolio consider reducing positions in taxable mutual fund holdings that continually throw off large distributions. If the fund is a good holding look for ways to own it in a tax-deferred account if possible.

The decision with regard to the taxable portion of your portfolio always involves taxes to one extent or another. If you were looking to reduce your position in the fund anyway it can make sense to sell it prior to the record date for this year’s capital gains distribution. If selling the fund would result in a capital gain, offsetting the gain against a realized loss on another holding could be a good strategy.

The Bottom Line

With the gains in the stock market over the past few years many investors may find themselves the recipient of large distributions this year in spite of weakness in the markets in recent months. When possible consider tax-efficiency when buying mutual funds in a taxable account.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner.

Photo credit: Pixobay

Smart Beta ETFs the Next Big Thing?


For those of us involved in financial services it is hard to check your Twitter stream or visit an industry website without seeing the term smart beta. ETF providers have really taken to this trend and have introduced many new ETFs based on some aspect of smart beta.

Nobody follows a trend quite like the folks who market mutual funds or ETFs and smart beta is the hip thing that all of the “cool kids” are doing. At a recent ETF industry conference sponsored by Morningstar (MORN) this was virtually all anyone was talking about in the sessions I attended.

What is smart beta and is it really smart?  Are smart beta ETFs the next big thing in ETF investing?

Smart Beta Defined 

According to Investopedia (for whom I am a frequent contributor):

“Investment managers that follow a smart beta investment strategy seek to passively follow indices, while also taking into account alternative weighting schemes such as volatility. That’s because smart beta strategies are implemented like a typical index strategies in that the index rules are set and transparent. Smart Beta strategies will differ from standard indices, such as the S&P 500 or the Barclays Aggregate, in that the indices focus on areas of the market that offer an opportunity for exploitation.” 

We will attempt to expand on that definition a bit below. 

Factor investing 

Most smart beta ETFs take an aspect or a factor from a traditional index. Traditional index ETFs passively track a market value weighted index like the S&P 500.  Some popular factors include low volatility, momentum; equal-weighted indexes, dividends and quality are common factors. An equal-weighted index would give equal weighting to a huge stock like Apple (APPL) and to the smallest stock in terms of market capitalization in the S&P 500 Index.

An example of a smart beta ETF based on a factor is the Powershares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV).

This ETF invests in the 100 stocks in the index that have exhibited the lowest volatility over the past 12 months. A sound idea in theory and perhaps ultimately in practice.

Like many smart beta ETFs the inception date of SPLV was May 5, 2011 over two years after the low point of the markets during the financial crises. The index the ETF follows was essentially created in the lab via back-testing, much like the Peter Boyle character in the movie Young Frankenstein. This means that most of the “history” of this ETF is via back-testing and not real performance data. As a presenter at the Morningstar conference said, he’s never seen a back-test that did not yield a positive result.

Looking at SPLV’s results, the ETF trails the S&P 500 index in terms of trailing three year returns 12.95% to 14.77% on an average annual basis for the period ending 10/19/2015. However for the year-to-date period through the same date SPLV has gained 1.27% versus 0.41% for the index.

Looking at another measure, standard deviation of return which measures the variability of the ETF’s returns (up and down) over the three year period ending 9/30/2015, the standard deviation for SPLV is +/- 9.63% versus +/- 9.74% for the index. My guess is that a selling point of this ETF would be lower volatility but over the past three years the smart beta ETF is only fractionally less volatile than the index and an investor would have considerably less money if they had held SPLV over a more traditional ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Is an investment in SPLV a bad idea? I don’t know because I have no idea how this ETF will hold up in a pronounced bear market. Yes it has performed better than the full index so far in 2015 including the volatility in August and September. How will it do if we hit a rough patch like 2000-2002 or 2008-2009? Good question.

A growth area 

According to data from Morningstar as of 6/30/2015:

  • There were 444 smart beta products listed in the U.S.
  • These products accounted for $540 billion in assets under management which was 21% of all U.S ETF assets.
  • Of the new cash flows into ETFs over the past 12 months, 31% went into smart beta products.
  • The assets in these products grew 27% over the same period.
  • A quarter of new ETF launches over the past five years were smart beta products.

Who uses smart beta ETFs? 

From what I have heard and read smart beta ETFs are being used largely by financial advisors and institutional investors versus individuals. You might say so what? These folks are likely investing your money either via your relationship with a financial advisor who may use them in a portfolio or use a TAMP (turnkey asset management program) program offered by a third-party to manage your money.

Reasons to use Smart Beta 

Morningstar cites several reasons investors and advisors might consider smart beta ETFs:

  • To manage portfolio risk
  • To enhance portfolio returns
  • For tactical asset allocation, meaning an allocation that is based in part on the advisor’s assessment of market conditions
  • Reducing fees versus actively managed mutual funds
  • To use an active strategy grounded by an index core

Many, including me, view strategic beta as a form of active management. A presenter at the Morningstar conference suggested that any smart beta ETF with an expense ratio of 50 basis points or higher should not be considered as this is the lower end of the fee range for the better actively managed mutual funds offering an institutional share class.

What does this mean for individual investors? 

Again I suspect that most of the money invested here will be institutional or via financial advisors. As an individual investor working with a financial advisor who suggests using smart beta ETFs in your portfolio, you should ask them to explain their rational. Why are these ETFs a better choice than an asset allocation strategy using more traditional index products?

If you will using smart beta ETFs on your own, be sure that you fully understand the underlying index which was likely created post-financial crises via back testing. Understand that smart beta strategies may look good on paper but in reality they can take a number of years to prove themselves.  Lastly understand that strategies that look good in testing may not work as well when millions of dollars are actually invested there real-time.

For financial advisors 

Most financial advisors that I know are very deliberate in testing new products and investing ideas before using them with clients. With the rise of third-party advisors such as TAMPs and ETF strategists, financial advisors still need to understand the underlying products and strategies being used to invest their client’s hard-earned money.

The Bottom Line 

Smart beta is the next evolution of ETF investing or so say the firms trying to gather assets into these products. I’m not saying that smart beta isn’t an enhancement or that I am against new investing inovations. I am leery of any investment vehicle designed to solve a problem or fill a role in portfolios that have not gone through a full stock market cycle. With any investment vehicle that you are considering, be sure to fully understand the benefits, the risks and the costs. How smart is smart beta? We really won’t know until the market goes through a full cycle that includes a significant correction.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner.

What I’m Reading – Super Bowl I Rematch Edition


This week’s Monday Night Football match-up features my Green Bay Packers hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at beautiful Lambeau Field.

This is a rematch of the first Super Bowl (actually called the NFL-AFL Championship) played in the LA Coliseum in January of 1967. I was nine and even at that point a Packer fan for life. There were 30,000 empty seats and neither network (the game was televised by both NBC and CBS) preserved a recording of the game. An old tape copy from an individual was recently restored. This is a far cry from the hype that surrounds the Super Bowl today.

The Packers had 10 future Hall of Famers plus Coach Lombardi. The Packers won 35-10. let’s hope for a similar result this time around as well.

Here are a few good financial articles to read while waiting for the kickoff:

Christine Benz discusses Dos and Don’ts for Mutual Funds Capital Gains Season at Morningstar.com.

Barbara Friedberg shares the 20 Dumbest Moves First-Time Investors Make at Go Banking Rates.

Sarah O’ Brien tells us that Financial planning is beyond investments, retirement plans at CNBC.com. 

Jim Blankenship warns us about Identity Theft Protection  at Getting Your Financial Ducks in a Row.

Elizabeth O’ Brien discusses When financial ‘advice’ is really a sales pitch at Market Watch.

I continue to write for Investopedia, here are a few of my recent contributions:

Betterment’s all-ETF Online 401(k) plan

Restricted Stock Units: What to Know

Closed-End Funds: A Primer

Enjoy the game. Go Pack Go!

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner.

Schwab Intelligent Portfolios: The Evolution of the Robo Advisor?


Charles Schwab (SCHW) recently launched its much anticipate entry into the Robo Advisor space, Schwab Intelligent Portfolios.  Schwab instantly will become a major player here simply because they are Schwab.

I honest don’t know if Intelligent Portfolios are a good thing for investors or not.  I do suspect that the introduction of Schwab Intelligent Portfolios represents a big step in the evolution of Robo Advisors.

Competitor reactions to Schwab Intelligent Portfolios 

Betterment CEO Jonathan Stein appeared on CNBC recently and frankly I was taken aback at how critical he was of the new Schwab offering.

Wealthfront’s CEO wrote a very critical post about Schwab’s entrance into the Robo Advisor space.

These reactions alone tell me that Schwab’s Intelligent Portfolios are a big deal and a potential game changer in the Robo Advisor world.  Wealthfront and Betterment are two of the stronger players in the Robo Advisor space.  Both are well-funded and Betterment has forged a deal with Fidelity to allow them to offer Betterment to the advisors who custody assets with Fidelity Institutional.  The reactions of these executives tell me they are more than a bit concerned about Schwab entering their space.

Schwab Intelligent Portfolios 

Schwab Intelligent Portfolios have a low $5,000 minimum investment, they carry no management fees, investors will not incur any direct transaction costs and there are no account fees.

Like most Robo Advisors, Intelligent Portfolios will be powered by algorithms using ETFs across 20 different asset classes, as well as a cash allocation invested in a bank account at a Schwab-affiliated bank.

The Schwab Intelligent Portfolios are bit different than other Robo Advisor models in that they will allocate a significant percentage of an investor’s portfolio to several Schwab ETFs based on the fundamental indexing approach of advisor Rob Arnott. The service will utilize model portfolios for investors based upon their goals and risk tolerance.

Additionally each of the portfolios has a significant allocation to cash via Schwab’s affiliated bank. The allocation would range from 7% for a 30-year-old investor to 15% for a more conservative 65 year-old investor. The cash allocations have initially drawn a skeptical reaction from some financial advisors.

While there will be no fees for the service, Schwab will make money from the expense ratios of the ETFs, as well as the money invested via the Schwab affiliated bank.  The Intelligent Portfolios will include tax-loss harvesting for investors with at least $50,000 invested as well as automatic rebalancing.

Additionally Schwab has announced the launch of an institutional version of the Intelligent Portfolios during the second quarter of 2015 for use by financial advisors who custody assets with Schwab Institutional.

The Evolution of Robo Advisors 

Schwab’s Intelligent Portfolios represents the latest entry into the Robo Advisor space by a major financial services firms.

Fidelity Investments has formed partnerships with Betterment and Learnvest that allows financial advisors who custody assets with them to offer these services to their clients under their own umbrella.  This is a great way for these advisors to court younger clients who might not meet their normal minimums and work with them in a meaningful way until they might become full-service clients in the future.

Vanguard has launched its own Robo Advisor service and it has drawn over $4.5 billion in assets without any advertising.  Most of this money has likely come from investors with money already at Vanguard and represents an additional 20 to 40 basis points in revenue on money that is already there.

For the very reasonable fee Vanguard offers clients a financial plan, asset allocation advice, rebalancing and ongoing financial advice.  They likely will roll this service out more widely in the near future and they reportedly are thinking of offering a version for financial advisors whom their institutional sales group already calls on.

Overall the Robo Advisor offerings by Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, TD Ameritrade and some others represent the next step in the evolution of Robo Advisors.

At some point I envision the use of Robo Advisors by the likes of Schwab and the financial advisors who custody with them almost like Major League Baseball uses the minor leagues as a farm system.  Clients who want solid advice but who don’t meet the minimums of many financial advisors will start out in some sort of online service and as their accounts grow and their needs evolve they will move to the “big leagues” and become full service clients.

Overall I view the evolution of the Robo Advisor as a good thing for both clients and financial advisors.  For clients this represents another choice in how to get financial advice.  For financial advisors it represents a viable way to serve clients who the financial services industry has not done a good job of serving in the past.

Read more about Robo Advisors 

We Interrupt This Program To Bring You… RoboWars a great piece on I heart Wall Street.

Broken Values & Bottom Lines the piece I mentioned above by Wealthfront CEO Adam Nash.

I asked three robots how I should invest, got three different answers by Yahoo! Finance’s Michael Santolli.

I’ve written several pieces on the topic for Investopedia:

Schwab’s New Robo-Advisor Service Explained

Robo-Advisors and a Human Touch: Better Together?

Is An Online Financial Advisor Right For You? 

I invite you to contact me to ask any questions that you might have, to tell me what you like or don’t like about the site, and to suggest topics that you would like to see covered here in the future. 

Please check out our Resources page for tools and services that you might find useful.

Do I Own Too Many Mutual Funds?


In one form or another I’ve been asked by several readers “… do I own too many mutual funds?”  In several cases the question was prompted by the number of mutual fund holdings in brokerage accounts with major brokerage firms including brokerage wrap accounts.  One reader cited an account with $1.5 million and 35 mutual funds.

So how many mutual funds are too many?  There is not a single right answer but let’s try to help you determine the best answer for your situation.

The 3 mutual fund portfolio 

I would contend that a portfolio consisting of three mutual funds or ETFs could be well-diversified.  For example a portfolio consisting of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX), the Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX) and the Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX) would provide an investor with exposure to the U.S. stock and bond markets as well as non-U.S. developed and emerging markets equities.

As index funds the expenses are low and each fund will stay true to its investment style.  This portfolio could be replicated with lower cost share classes at Vanguard or Fidelity if you meet the minimum investment levels.  A very similar portfolio could also be constructed with ETFs as well.

This isn’t to say that three index funds or ETFs is the right number.  There may be some additional asset classes that are appropriate for your situation and certainly well-chosen actively managed mutual funds can be a fit as well.

19 mutual funds and little diversification 

A number of years ago a client engaged my services to review their portfolio.  The client was certain that their portfolio was well-diversified as he held several individual stocks and 19 mutual funds.

After the review, I pointed out that there were several stocks that were among the top five holdings in all 19 funds and the level of stock overlap was quite heavy.  These 19 mutual funds all held similar stocks and had the same investment objective.  While this client held a number of different mutual funds he certainly was not diversified.  This one-time engagement ended just prior to the Dot Com market decline that began in 2000, assuming that his portfolio stayed as it was I suspect he suffered substantial losses during that market decline.

How many mutual funds can you monitor? 

Can you effectively monitor 20, 30 or more mutual fund holdings?  Frankly this is a chore for financial professionals with all of the right tools.  As an individual investor is this something that you want to tackle?  Is this a good use of your time?  Will all of these extra funds add any value to your portfolio?

What is the motivation for your broker? 

If you are investing via a brokerage firm or any financial advisor who suggests what seems like an excessive number of mutual funds for your account you should ask them what is behind these recommendations.  Do they earn compensation via the mutual funds they suggest for your portfolio? Their firm might have a revenue-generating agreement with certain fund companies.  Additionally the rep might be required to use many of the proprietary mutual funds offered by his or her employer.

Circumstances will vary 

If you have an IRA, a taxable brokerage account and a 401(k) it’s easy to accumulate a sizable collection of mutual funds.  Add in additional accounts for your spouse and the number of mutual funds can get even larger.

The point here is to keep the number of funds reasonable and manageable.  Your choices in your employer’s retirement plan are beyond your control and you may not be able to sync them up with your core portfolio held outside of the plan.

Additionally this is a good reason to stay on top of old 401(k) plans and consolidate them into an IRA or a new employer’s plan when possible.

The Bottom Line 

Mutual funds remain the investment of choice for many investors.  It is possible to construct a diversified portfolio using just a few mutual funds or ETFs.

Holding too many mutual funds can make it difficult to monitor and evaluate your funds as well as your overall portfolio.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions. 

Please check out our Resources page for more tools and services that you might find useful.

Robo Advisors – A Brave New World?


The piece below is written by Doug Dahmer and originally appeared under the title “Robo-Advisors” – rise of the machines on Jon Chevreau’s site Financial Independence Hub.  Jon is at the forefront of a movement he calls “Findependence.”  This is essentially looking at becoming financially independent so that you can pursue the lifestyle of your choosing.   Jon is a Canadian author and journalist, check out his book Findependence Day.  Jon has contributed several prior posts here as well. 

I know Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics, I read Arthur C. Clarke’s 2001: A Space Odyssey and I love the Terminator movies (I’ll be back!).

From all this I know three things: Robots are very smart. Robots always start off to help you. Robots have a tendency to turn on you.

One of the newest crazes and buzzwords in personal finance is: “Robo-Adviser.” If you’re not familiar with the term, it refers to investment management by algorithm in the absence of human input.

With a “Robo” you are asked to complete an on-line risk assessment questionnaire. Your responses determines the prescribed portfolio of ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) with a built-in asset allocation best suited to your needs. Once a year the portfolio is rebalanced to this prescribed asset allocation recipe. 

Dynamics change as shift from Saving to Spending

The “Robo” approach relies heavily upon a basic “buy/hold/rebalance” investment strategy. This passive strategy can work to your advantage during your accumulation years. These are the years when time is your friend, and dollar cost averaging through market cycles offers the opportunity to give your returns a boost.

However, as we get older and begin to prepare for and transition into our spending years, things change. Unfortunately, too few people realize that the investment strategies that served us well during our savings years turn on their head and work to our disadvantage as the flow of funds reverses and savings turns to spending. 

Dollar Cost Ravaging

Suddenly time changes from friend to foe where “dollar cost averaging” turns to “dollar cost ravaging” or what we call, the Mathematics of Catastrophe. (More about which in our next Hub blog). During the second half of your life the simplistic money management approach followed by “Robo- Advisers” can start to look like a “deed of the devil.”

Another concern is that “Robos” are unable to deal with the reality of expense variability. If you believe that in retirement, a fixed, annual withdrawal rate from a diversified portfolio will address your income needs I can with confidence suggest you are at best short-changing yourself and at worst setting yourself up for a cataclysmic financial failure.

I have been in this business a long time and know beyond a shadow of a doubt that a properly constructed life plan is very important in the second half of your life. It is only when you know what you want to do, when you want to do it and what it will cost to do it, that you can start to build the financial framework to make it happen.

Only through your life plan are you able to anticipate years of surplus and years of deficits and take the steps to bend them to your benefit. You need to bring together cash flow optimization, tax management and pension style investment management to make it happen and in the process add hundreds of thousands of dollars to your lifetime assets and cash flow. 

Robos ill equipped to link life to investment plan

Linking your life plan to your investment plan is the secret to success, but “robo investing” is not equipped to handle the nuances of that linkage. A Retirement Income Specialist knows that the type of money management you need is much more complex where the cash-flow demands outlined in your life plan need are linked to your investment plan. Tax planning, income optimization and risk mitigation means it is dangerous to leave your investment management running on auto-pilot.

Isaac Asimov’s first law of robotics holds that: A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.

“Robo-adviser” firms would do well to review this law. When it comes to investors heading into the second half of their lives, “Robo Advisers” may well be about to break it. 

Doug Dahmer, CFP, is founder and CEO of Emeritus Retirement Income Specialists. With offices in Toronto and Burlington, Emeritus’ C3 process is one of the industry’s most comprehensive retirement planning processes. 

Online financial advisors or Robo Advisors are popping up all over the place and if you believe the financial press they are the future of financial advice.  In part I believe they are or will at least shape the future of financial advice.  I weighed in on this topic recently via  Is An Online Financial Advisor Right For You? for Investopedia.

Please feel free to contact me with your questions.  

Check out an online service like Personal Capital  to manage all of your investment and retirement accounts all in one place. Please check out our Resources page for more tools and services that you might find useful.

Dow 18,000 – A Big Deal?


In February of 2013 I wrote Dow 14,000 – Big Deal or Just a Number?  Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 17,778 after a 421 point gain.  This is on the heels of a better than 200 point rise yesterday marking the average’s largest two day gain in 12 years.  Dow 18,000 looks like it will not be far off.

Just as I thought Dow 14,000 was a pretty meaningless number, I also think Dow 18,000 is equally meaningless.  In fact there are many, including yours truly, who think the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn’t all that meaningful as a benchmark.

Rather than focusing on the level of the market you should focus on your portfolio and your investment strategy.  Some specific action steps you might consider:

Rebalance your portfolio

You should have a strategy to review your overall portfolio on a regular basis (annually, semi-annually etc.) to ensure that your asset allocation is within your target allocation.  Invariably certain asset classes will outperform or under perform.  Bringing your portfolio back into balance forces you to sell off some winners and fund those asset classes that have underperformed.

Market leaders and laggards shift periodically and this approach adds a level of discipline to your strategy.  Mostly rebalancing helps mitigate investment risk.

Keep expenses low 

You can’t control how the markets will perform.  You can control your investment expenses.  Specifically:

  • Mutual fund and ETF expenses.
  • Trading costs at your custodian.
  • The cost of financial advice

Revisit your investment strategy 

I view market highs as a great time to revisit your investment strategy and your financial plan.  If you’ve been fully and properly invested your portfolio has hopefully risen along with the markets.

Where does this leave you in terms of progress towards achieving your financial goals?  This is a good time to revisit your financial plan.

The Bottom Line

Is Dow 18,000 a big deal?  Not in my book and frankly I wonder if anyone besides the financial news media really cares.  I suggest focusing on the details of your portfolio and your strategy and ignoring the hype.

Check out an online service like Personal Capital to manage all of your accounts all in one place.   Check out our Resources page for more tools and services.

Tis the Season for Stock Market Predictions


As I listen to CNBC in the background and read the financial press it is the season for the pundits to make their 2015 stock market predictions.  Some of these predictions relate to the level of the market in general, others include “hot stocks for 2015.”

Many of these people are pretty smart and I’m not dismissing their research.  What I am saying is that that I’m not so sure any of this is useful.  But in the spirit of the season here are my 2015 stock market predictions.

The stock market might go up 

The consensus seems to be that 2015 will be a good year for the stock market.  They might well be right.  The U.S. economy is improving, oil prices are low, etc.

The stock market might go down 

The experts could be wrong or worse there could be some sort of adverse event that spooks the market and perhaps the economy.

My official stock market predication is that I have no clue 

While this is all fun and provides something for the cable news talking heads to discuss, at the end of the day nobody has a clue what 2015 or any year holds for the stock market or the economy.

Focus on what you can control 

We have no control over what the financial markets will do or over how your stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, or any other holdings will do.  But as investors you can control a number of things including:

  • The cost of investment advice
  • The expense ratios of mutual funds and ETFs owned
  • Your asset allocation
  • Your overall investment strategy
  • How much you save and invest in our 401(k) and elsewhere
  • How much you spend.

I’m not denigrating the value of stock market research and analysis.  But for most of you reading this post I’m guessing that you are long-term investors versus being traders.  If that is the case you are, in my opinion, far better off controlling what you can control and investing in line with your financial plan than in trying to chase predictions and hot segments in 2015 or in any year.

Start 2015 out right, check out an online service like Personal Capital to manage all of your accounts all in one place.  Check out our Resources page for more tools and services.

8 Year-End Financial Planning Tips for 2014


When I thought about this post I looked back at a post written about a year ago cleverly titled 7 Year-End 2013 Financial Planning Tips.  The year-end 2014 version isn’t radically different but it’s also not the same either.

Here are 8 year-end financial planning tips for 2014 that you might consider:

Consider appreciated investments for charitable giving 

This was a good idea last year and in fact always has been.  Many organizations have the capability to accept shares of individual stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, closed-end funds and other investment vehicles.  The advantage to you as the donor is that you receive a charitable deduction equal to the fair market value of the security on the date of the completed transfer to the charity.  Additionally you will not owe any tax on the gains in the investment unlike if you were to sell it.

This does not work with investments showing a loss since purchase and of course is not applicable for investments held in tax-deferred accounts such as an IRA.  I suggest consulting with a financial or tax advisor here.

Match gains and losses in your portfolio 

With the stock market having another solid year, though not nearly as good as 2013 was, year-end represents a good time to go through the taxable portion of your investment portfolio to review your gains and losses.  This is a sub-set of the rebalancing process discussed below.

Note to the extent that recognized capital losses exceed your recognized gains you can deduct an extra $3,000.  Additional losses can be carried over.  This is another case where you will want to consult a tax or financial advisor as this can get a bit complex.

Rebalance your portfolio 

With several stock market indexes at or near record highs again you could find yourself with a higher allocation to stocks across your portfolio than your financial plan calls for.  This is exposing your portfolio to more risk than anticipated.  While many of the pundits are calling for continued stock market gains through 2015, they just could be wrong.

When rebalancing take a look at all investment accounts including your 401(k), any IRAs, taxable accounts, etc.  Look at all of your investments as a consolidated portfolio.  While you are at it this is a good time to check on any changes to the lineup in your company retirement plan.  Many companies use the fall open enrollment event to also roll out changes to the 401(k) plan.

Start a self-employed retirement plan 

There are a number of retirement plan options for the self-employed.  Some such as a Solo 401(k) and pension plan require that you have the plan established prior to the end of the year if you want to make a contribution for 2014.  You work too hard not fund a retirement for yourself.

Take your required minimum distributions

If you are one of the many people who need to take a required minimum distribution from a retirement plan account prior to the end of the year you really need to get on this now.  The penalties for failing to take the distribution are steep and you will still owe the applicable income taxes on the amount of the distribution.

Use caution when buying mutual funds in taxable accounts 

This is always good advice around this time of year, but is especially important this year with many funds making large distributions.  Many mutual funds declare distributions near year-end.  You want to be careful to wait until after the date of record to buy into a fund in your taxable account in order to avoid receiving a taxable distribution based on a few days of fund ownership.  The better path, if possible, is to wait to buy the fund after the distribution has been made.  This is not an issue in a tax-deferred account such as an IRA.

Have a family financial meeting 

With many families getting together for the holidays this is a great time to hold a family financial meeting.  It is especially important for adult children and their parents to be on the same page regarding issues such as the location of the parent’s important documents like their wills and what would happen in the event of a long-term care situationWhile life events will happen, preparation and communication among family members before such an event can make dealing with any situation a bit easier. 

Get a financial plan in place 

What better time of year to get your arms around your financial situation?  If you have a financial plan in place review it and perhaps meet with your advisor to make any needed revisions.  If you don’t have one then find a qualified fee-only financial advisor to help you.  Just like any journey, achieving your financial goals requires a roadmap.  Why start the journey without one?

If you are more of a do-it-yourselfer, check out an online service like Personal Capitalor purchase the latest version of Quicken.

These are just a few year-end financial planning tips.  Everyone’s situation is different and this could dictate other year-end financial priorities for you.

The end of the year is a busy time with the holidays, parties, family get-togethers, and the like.  Make sure that your finances are in shape for the end of the year and beyond.