Objective information about financial planning, investments, and retirement plans

Dow 18,000 – A Big Deal?

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In February of 2013 I wrote Dow 14,000 – Big Deal or Just a Number?  Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 17,778 after a 421 point gain.  This is on the heels of a better than 200 point rise yesterday marking the average’s largest two day gain in 12 years.  Dow 18,000 looks like it will not be far off.

Just as I thought Dow 14,000 was a pretty meaningless number, I also think Dow 18,000 is equally meaningless.  In fact there are many, including yours truly, who think the Dow Jones Industrial Average isn’t all that meaningful as a benchmark.

Rather than focusing on the level of the market you should focus on your portfolio and your investment strategy.  Some specific action steps you might consider:

Rebalance your portfolio

You should have a strategy to review your overall portfolio on a regular basis (annually, semi-annually etc.) to ensure that your asset allocation is within your target allocation.  Invariably certain asset classes will outperform or under perform.  Bringing your portfolio back into balance forces you to sell off some winners and fund those asset classes that have underperformed.

Market leaders and laggards shift periodically and this approach adds a level of discipline to your strategy.  Mostly rebalancing helps mitigate investment risk.

Keep expenses low 

You can’t control how the markets will perform.  You can control your investment expenses.  Specifically:

  • Mutual fund and ETF expenses.
  • Trading costs at your custodian.
  • The cost of financial advice

Revisit your investment strategy 

I view market highs as a great time to revisit your investment strategy and your financial plan.  If you’ve been fully and properly invested your portfolio has hopefully risen along with the markets.

Where does this leave you in terms of progress towards achieving your financial goals?  This is a good time to revisit your financial plan.

The Bottom Line

Is Dow 18,000 a big deal?  Not in my book and frankly I wonder if anyone besides the financial news media really cares.  I suggest focusing on the details of your portfolio and your strategy and ignoring the hype.

Check out an online service like Personal Capital to manage all of your accounts all in one place or purchase the latest version of Quicken.  Check out our Resources page for more tools and services.

Tis the Season for Stock Market Predictions

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As I listen to CNBC in the background and read the financial press it is the season for the pundits to make their 2015 stock market predictions.  Some of these predictions relate to the level of the market in general, others include “hot stocks for 2015.”

Many of these people are pretty smart and I’m not dismissing their research.  What I am saying is that that I’m not so sure any of this is useful.  But in the spirit of the season here are my 2015 stock market predictions.

The stock market might go up 

The consensus seems to be that 2015 will be a good year for the stock market.  They might well be right.  The U.S. economy is improving, oil prices are low, etc.

The stock market might go down 

The experts could be wrong or worse there could be some sort of adverse event that spooks the market and perhaps the economy.

My official stock market predication is that I have no clue 

While this is all fun and provides something for the cable news talking heads to discuss, at the end of the day nobody has a clue what 2015 or any year holds for the stock market or the economy.

Focus on what you can control 

We have no control over what the financial markets will do or over how your stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, or any other holdings will do.  But as investors you can control a number of things including:

  • The cost of investment advice
  • The expense ratios of mutual funds and ETFs owned
  • Your asset allocation
  • Your overall investment strategy
  • How much you save and invest in our 401(k) and elsewhere
  • How much you spend.

I’m not denigrating the value of stock market research and analysis.  But for most of you reading this post I’m guessing that you are long-term investors versus being traders.  If that is the case you are, in my opinion, far better off controlling what you can control and investing in line with your financial plan than in trying to chase predictions and hot segments in 2015 or in any year.

Start 2015 out right, check out an online service like Personal Capital to manage all of your accounts all in one place or purchase the latest version of Quicken.  Check out our Resources page for more tools and services.

8 Year-End Financial Planning Tips for 2014

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When I thought about this post I looked back at a post written about a year ago cleverly titled 7 Year-End 2013 Financial Planning Tips.  The year-end 2014 version isn’t radically different but it’s also not the same either.

Here are 8 year-end financial planning tips for 2014 that you might consider:

Consider appreciated investments for charitable giving 

This was a good idea last year and in fact always has been.  Many organizations have the capability to accept shares of individual stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, closed-end funds and other investment vehicles.  The advantage to you as the donor is that you receive a charitable deduction equal to the fair market value of the security on the date of the completed transfer to the charity.  Additionally you will not owe any tax on the gains in the investment unlike if you were to sell it.

This does not work with investments showing a loss since purchase and of course is not applicable for investments held in tax-deferred accounts such as an IRA.  I suggest consulting with a financial or tax advisor here.

Match gains and losses in your portfolio 

With the stock market having another solid year, though not nearly as good as 2013 was, year-end represents a good time to go through the taxable portion of your investment portfolio to review your gains and losses.  This is a sub-set of the rebalancing process discussed below.

Note to the extent that recognized capital losses exceed your recognized gains you can deduct an extra $3,000.  Additional losses can be carried over.  This is another case where you will want to consult a tax or financial advisor as this can get a bit complex.

Rebalance your portfolio 

With several stock market indexes at or near record highs again you could find yourself with a higher allocation to stocks across your portfolio than your financial plan calls for.  This is exposing your portfolio to more risk than anticipated.  While many of the pundits are calling for continued stock market gains through 2015, they just could be wrong.

When rebalancing take a look at all investment accounts including your 401(k), any IRAs, taxable accounts, etc.  Look at all of your investments as a consolidated portfolio.  While you are at it this is a good time to check on any changes to the lineup in your company retirement plan.  Many companies use the fall open enrollment event to also roll out changes to the 401(k) plan.

Start a self-employed retirement plan 

There are a number of retirement plan options for the self-employed.  Some such as a Solo 401(k) and pension plan require that you have the plan established prior to the end of the year if you want to make a contribution for 2014.  You work too hard not fund a retirement for yourself.

Take your required minimum distributions

If you are one of the many people who need to take a required minimum distribution from a retirement plan account prior to the end of the year you really need to get on this now.  The penalties for failing to take the distribution are steep and you will still owe the applicable income taxes on the amount of the distribution.

Use caution when buying mutual funds in taxable accounts 

This is always good advice around this time of year, but is especially important this year with many funds making large distributions.  Many mutual funds declare distributions near year-end.  You want to be careful to wait until after the date of record to buy into a fund in your taxable account in order to avoid receiving a taxable distribution based on a few days of fund ownership.  The better path, if possible, is to wait to buy the fund after the distribution has been made.  This is not an issue in a tax-deferred account such as an IRA.

Have a family financial meeting 

With many families getting together for the holidays this is a great time to hold a family financial meeting.  It is especially important for adult children and their parents to be on the same page regarding issues such as the location of the parent’s important documents like their wills and what would happen in the event of a long-term care situationWhile life events will happen, preparation and communication among family members before such an event can make dealing with any situation a bit easier. 

Get a financial plan in place 

What better time of year to get your arms around your financial situation?  If you have a financial plan in place review it and perhaps meet with your advisor to make any needed revisions.  If you don’t have one then find a qualified fee-only financial advisor to help you.  Just like any journey, achieving your financial goals requires a roadmap.  Why start the journey without one?

If you are more of a do-it-yourselfer, check out an online service like Personal Capitalor purchase the latest version of Quicken.

These are just a few year-end financial planning tips.  Everyone’s situation is different and this could dictate other year-end financial priorities for you.

The end of the year is a busy time with the holidays, parties, family get-togethers, and the like.  Make sure that your finances are in shape for the end of the year and beyond.  

What I’m Reading-Packers Reign Supreme Edition

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It’s Cyber Monday (can you say contrived promotional event) and I have already been to O’Hare to drop my daughter off.  Amazing how crowded it was even at 5 AM.

Great football games over the holiday weekend, but none better than the Packers beating the Patriots yesterday in what was deemed a Super Bowl preview.  Feels good now but the next week is another game.

Here are a few financial articles I suggest for some good Post-Thanksgiving financial reading:

Jim Blankenship offers some Year-End Charitable Giving Tips at Getting Your Financial Ducks in a Row.

Mike Piper answers a reader question Which Accounts Should I Spend From Each Year In Retirement? at Oblivious Investor.

Christine Benz provides an example of A Conservative Retirement Saver Portfolio for ETF Investors at Morningstar.com.

Larry Light shared a piece from financial advisor and blogger Jeff Rose Make Your Money Last In Retirement (Pt. 2) at Forbes.

Ben Steverman writes Hedge Funds Lose Money for Everyone, Not Just the Rich at Bloomberg.

John Wasik shares Five Ways to Protect Yourself on Cyber Monday at Forbes.

For now the Packers reign supreme but the Falcons visit Lambeau for next week’s Monday Night game and they will pose a tough challenge.  Enjoy Cyber Monday and the rest of the week.

Is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Still a Relevant Stock Market Index?

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) of 30 large stocks has long been arguably the most watched index for those following the stock market.  As I write this IBM a long-time index component reported a major miss in its quarterly earnings.

The stock was down some 7% for the day and due to this decline the DJIA was been down most of the day.  The index finished up some 19 points but without the drag of IBM the index would have been up around 100 points according to a commentator on CNBC.  This begs the question is the Dow Jones Industrial Average still a relevant stock market index?

It’s just 30 stocks 

The DJIA is a weighted average (the actual weighting formula is very complex) of the price of the 30 stocks that comprise the index.  Originally the index was supposed to represent the stocks of large industrial companies.  Over the years the composition of the index has changed to reflect the changing nature of American business.

Here are the 30 companies that comprise the index:

Company

 

 

 

 

 

3M Co
American Express Co
AT&T Inc
Boeing Co
Caterpillar Inc
Chevron Corp
Cisco Systems Inc
E I du Pont de Nemours and Co
Exxon Mobil Corp
General Electric Co
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
Home Depot Inc
Intel Corp
International Business Machines
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
McDonald’s Corp
Merck & Co Inc
Microsoft Corp
Nike Inc
Pfizer Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
The Coca-Cola Co
Travelers Companies Inc
United Technologies Corp
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Verizon Communications Inc
Visa Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co

 

Certainly a nice mix of manufacturers, retail, financial services, and technology related companies.  Three major names absent from the index include Google, Facebook, and Apple.  While these are large and influential companies they do not represent the total focus of the investment universe.

Chuck Jaffe wrote this excellent piece on the topic of the Dow It’s time to ditch the Dow Jones Industrial Average  over at the Market Watch site.

Investing options are varied and global 

Of the major market benchmarks the broader S&P 500 seems to hold a lot more sway with many money managers and others in the finance and investing world.  I know that personally I am a lot more concerned with this index as a benchmark for large cap mutual funds and ETFs than the Dow.

The NASDAQ is also widely watched due to its heavy tech influence.  I think the bursting of the Dot Com bubble put this index on the radar to stay back in early 2000.

Other key benchmarks include the Russell 2000 for small cap stocks, the Russell Mid Cap, the EAFE for large cap foreign stocks and many others for various market niches.  Additionally there are any number of index mutual funds and ETFs that follow these and other key benchmarks for those who want to invest in these segments of the stock market.

While I’m guessing the Dow will remain a widely watched and quoted stock market indicator I and many others find it increasingly irrelevant.  It is always a good idea to benchmark your investments against the appropriate index for a single holding or a blended, weighted benchmark to gauge your overall portfolio’s performance.

Five Things to do During a Stock Market Correction

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As you may or may not know the stock market has been going through some tough days recently.  For example the S&P 500 Index is down about 8% from its all-time high reached in September of this year.  While we are not officially in correction mode (this is usually defined as a 10% or greater drop in an index) there has been a lot of volatility lately.  Here are five things you should do during a stock market correction.

Do nothing

Assuming that you have a financial plan with an investment strategy in place there is really nothing to do at this point.  Ideally you’ve been rebalancing your portfolio along the way and your asset allocation is largely in line with your plan and your risk tolerance.  Making moves in reaction to a stock market correction (official or otherwise) is rarely a good idea.  At the very least wait until the dust settles.  As Aaron Rodgers told the fans in Green Bay after the Packers 1-2 start, relax.  They have since won three straight.  Sound advice for fans of the greatest team on the planet and investors as well.

Review your mutual fund holdings

I always look at rough market periods as a good time to take a look at the various mutual funds and ETFs in a portfolio.  What I’m looking for is how did they hold up compared to their peers during the market downturn.  For example during the 2008-2009 market debacle I looked at funds to see how they did in both the down market of 2008 and the up market of 2009.  If a fund did worse than the majority of its peers in 2008 I would expect to see better than average performance in the up market of 2009.  If there was under performance during both periods to me this was a huge red flag.

Don’t get caught up in the media hype

If you watch CNBC long enough you will find some expert to support just about any opinion about the stock market during any type of market situation.  This can be especially dangerous for investors who might already feel a sense of fear when the markets are tanking.  I’m not discounting the great information the media provides, but you need to take much of this with a grain of salt.  This is a good time to lean on your financial plan and your investment strategy and use these tools as a guide.

Focus on risk

Use stock market corrections and downturns to assess your portfolio’s risk and more importantly your risk tolerance.  Assess whether your portfolio has held up in line with your expectations.  If not perhaps you are taking more risk than you had planned.  Also assess your feelings about your portfolio’s performance.  If you find yourself feeling unduly fearful about what is going on perhaps it is time to revisit your allocation and your financial plan once things settle down.

Look for bargains

If you had your eye on a particular stock, ETF, or mutual fund before the market dropped perhaps this is the time to make an investment.  I don’t advocate market timing but buying a good long-term investment is even more attractive when it’s on sale so to speak.

Markets will always correct at some point.  Smart investors factor this into their plans and don’t overreact.  Be a smart investor.

5 Reasons Investors Use ETFs

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Fidelity recently polled nearly 600 high net worth investors to gain a better understanding of their thinking about the market and where they plan to invest in 2014. Notably, 43% of investors said they are planning to increase their investment in ETFs over the next 12 months.

Fidelity created this graphic that highlights 5 reasons investors use ETFs (or don’t use them).

 5 Reasons Investors Use ETFs

Other key findings of the Fidelity study include:

  • Despite the small gains this year in the DJIA (1.6% as of June 5, 2014), 55% believe it will end the year up 5% or more.
  • When it comes to the U.S. economy, investors continue to feel cautious. The majority (71%) feels it’s headed in the right direction vs. 29% who say it’s stagnant or headed in the wrong direction.
  • 62% of investors also believe a market correction—when a major index declines by at least 10% from a recent high—is likely to happen in 2014.
  • The indicators that would motivate the most investors holding cash to re-invest into the market are a stronger U.S. economy (28%) and higher interest (12%). 25% report holding no cash on the sidelines.
  • Over half (59%) of investors prefer to grow their portfolio by investing in domestic equities vs. 18% in international equities.
  • Over a third (35%) invest in ETFs for broad market exposure (indexes), while 27% of investors don’t invest in ETFs because they need to learn more. 

Advantages of ETFs 

ETFs have several features that are advantageous to investors:

  • ETFs are generally transparent regarding their holdings.
  • ETFs can be bought and sold during the trading day.  This offers additional opportunities for investors.
  • Stop orders can be used to limit the downside movement of your ETFs.
  • ETFs can also be sold short just like stocks.
  • Many index ETFs carry low expense ratios and can be quite cheap to own.
  • Many ETFs are quite tax-efficient.
  • ETFs can provide a low cost, straightforward way to invest in core market indexes.  

Disadvantages of ETFs  

  • ETFs can be bought and sold just like stocks.  In some cases this could serve to promote excessive trading that could prove detrimental to investors.
  • ETF providers have introduced a proliferation of new ETFs in response to their popularity.  Some of these ETFs are excellent, some are not.  Many new ETFs are based on untested benchmarks that have only been back-tested.  Additionally there are a number of leveraged ETFs that multiply the movement of the underlying index by 2 or 3 times up or down.  While there is nothing inherently wrong with these products they can easily be misused by investors who don’t fully understand them.
  • Trading ETFs generally entails paying a transaction fee, though a number of providers have introduced commission-free ETFs in order to gain market share.  

ETFs have proven to be a great innovation for investors.  If used properly they are a great addition to your investing toolkit.  Like any investment make sure you understand what you are investing in (and why) before you invest.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. 

Time for a Mid-Year Financial Review

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It’s hard to believe that the first half of the year has come and gone already.  We enjoyed having all three of our adult children home over the holiday weekend.

Financial Review

Mid-year is always a good time for a financial review and 2014 is no exception.  So far in 2014:

  • Various stock market indexes are at or near record high levels. The Bull Market in stocks celebrated its fifth anniversary earlier this year and through June 30 the S&P 500 Index is up 190% since the March 2009 lows.
  • Bond funds and ETFs have surprised us by posting some pretty decent returns.  This is contrary to what many expected, especially in the wake of weak performance in 2013.
  • After largely not participating in the in the strong equity markets of 2013 REITS have been a top performing asset class YTD through the second quarter.
  • Emerging markets equity lost money as an asset class in 2013 and has also staged a nice recovery YTD through the first half of 2014.
  • Small cap stocks have underperformed so far in 2014 after a very outstanding 2013. 

In just about any year at the midpoint there will be asset classes that outperformed and some that have underperformed expectations.  That’s completely normal.  As far as your mid-year financial review here are a few things to consider.  These apply whether you do this yourself or if you are working with a financial advisor.

Review your financial plan 

Whether you do this now or at some other point in the year you should review your financial plan at least annually.  Given the robust stock market gains of the past five years this is a particularity opportune time for this review.

  • How are you tracking towards your financial goals?
  • Have your investment gains put you further ahead than anticipated?
  • Is it time to rethink the level of investment risk in your portfolio? 

Adjust your 401(k) deferral

If you aren’t on track to defer the maximum amount of your salary allowed ($17,500 or $23,000 if you are 50 or over at any point in 2014) try to up the percentage of your salary being deferred to the extent that you can.  Every little bit helps when saving for retirement.

Rebalance your portfolio 

This should be a standard in your financial playbook.  Different types of investments will perform differently at different times which can cause your overall portfolio to be out of balance with your target.  Too much money allocated to stocks can, for example, cause you to assume more risk than you had anticipated.

While it is a good idea to review your asset allocation at regular intervals, you don’t want to overdo rebalancing either.  I generally suggest that 401(k) participants whose plan offers auto rebalancing set the frequency to every six months.  More frequent rebalancing might be appropriate if market conditions have caused your portfolio to be severely misallocated.

Note some investment strategies call for a more tactical approach which is fine.  If you are using such a tactical approach (perhaps via an ETF strategist) you will still want to monitor what this manager is doing and that their strategy fits your plan and tolerance for risk.

Review your individual investments 

Certainly you will not want to make decisions about any investment holdings based upon short-term results but here are a few things to take into account during your mid-year financial review:

  • If you hold individual stocks where are they in relation to your target sell price?
  • Have there been key personnel changes in the management of your actively managed mutual funds?
  • Are any of your mutual funds suffering from asset bloat due to solid performance or perhaps just the greed of the mutual fund company?
  • Are the expense ratios of your index mutual funds and ETFs among the lowest available to you?
  • Has your company retirement plan added or removed any investment options?
  • Is the Target Date Fund option in your 401(k) plan really the best place for your retirement contributions? 

Review your company benefits 

I know its July but your annual Open Enrollment for employee benefits at most employers is coming up in the fall.  This is the time where you can adjust your various benefits such as health insurance, dental, etc.  Take a look at your benefits usage and your family situation as part of your financial review to see if you might need to consider adjustments in the fall.

Review your career status 

How are things going in your current job?  Are you on a solid career path?  Is it time for a change either internally or with a new employer?

A key question to ask yourself is whether you feel in danger of losing your job.  Often companies will time their layoffs for the second half of the year.  Ask yourself if approached with a buyout offer to leave would you take it.

For most of us our job is our major source of income and the vehicle that allows us to save and invest to meet financial goals such as retirement and sending our kids to college.

Start a self-employed retirement plan 

If you are self-employed you need to think about starting a retirement plan for yourself.  The SEP-IRA and the Solo 401(k) are two of the most common self-employed retirement plans, but there are other alternatives as well.

You work too hard not to save for your retirement.  If you don’t have plan in place for yourself it is time to take action.

Mid-year is a great time for a financial review.  Take some time and take stock of your situation.  Failing to plan your financial future is a plan to fail financially.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. 

Photo credit:  Flickr

Are Alternative Investments the Right Alternative for You?

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Alternative investments are all the rage these days.  Mutual fund companies are falling all over themselves to sell financial advisors and their clients on “liquid alts” or hedge fund-like strategies with the daily liquidity offered in a mutual fund wrapper.  Hedge funds were allowed to advertise due to a change in the rules last year.  The financial press is filled with articles about alternatives and the fund companies are offering numerous webinars and conferences covering them.

Are alternative investment strategies right for your portfolio?  I have no idea but here are some questions to ask as well as some information for you to consider.

What is an alternative investment strategy?

Alternatives are basically investment vehicles that aren’t purely stocks, bonds, or cash. The purpose of alternatives is generally to diversify an investment portfolio.  Ideally these strategies will have a low correlation to other investment vehicles in your portfolio.  Examples of alternative strategies include:

  • Hedge funds
  • Unconstrained fixed income
  • Macro strategy funds
  • Commodities and managed futures
  • Real estate
  • Precious metals
  • Long/short equity
  • Convertible arbitrage
  • Private equity
  • Vulture funds
  • Venture funds
  • Merger arbitrage 

As mentioned above, these strategies are available in the more traditional hedge fund format, as mutual funds, ETFs, and as fund of funds in each of these formats.

Consider this before investing in alternatives 

Before buying an alternative fund or product here are a few questions to consider:

  • Do you understand the underlying investment strategy?
  • What benefit will this investment provide to your overall portfolio?  Reduced volatility?  Low correlation to other holdings?
  • What are the expenses? Are they justified given the expected benefit of investing in this alterative fund?
  • Are there any restrictions on redeeming your investment? Typically (but not always) with a mutual fund or ETF the answer is no, hedge funds may have a lockup period or other restrictions.
  • Have this fund’s performance been tested in real market conditions or just back-tested on a computer?
  • Who’s managing the fund?  What is their background and track record? 

I am actually a fan of alternatives and have used several mutual funds of this type for a number of years.

Remember though, large endowments like those of the Ivy League schools use alternative investments extensively and successfully.  Unlike you they have access to the expertise needed to perform proper due diligence. Does the financial advisor recommending these funds to you really understand them? Be sure that you do before investing in any alternative investment product.

Please check out our Book Store for books on financial planning, retirement, and related topics as well as any Amazon shopping needs you may have (or just click on the link below).  The Chicago Financial Planner is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.  If you click on my Amazon.com links and buy anything, even something other than the product advertised, I earn a small fee, yet you don’t pay any extra. 

 

Please contact me at 847-506-9827 for a complimentary 30-minute consultation to discuss all of your investing and financial planning questions. Check out our Financial Planning and Investment Advice for Individuals page to learn more about our services

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