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Brexit and Your Portfolio

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As you are most likely aware, the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The so-called Brexit vote was a surprise to many and caused a swift, severe and negative reaction in the world financial markets.

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On Friday June 24, the S&P 500 lost about 3.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 3.4% of its value. There may be more pain in the days ahead, only time will tell.

As an individual investor what should you do when the stock market drops?

This isn’t new 

While the Brexit is a new issue, we’ve seen plenty of market disruptions before. The stock market crash of October 19, 1987 saw the market drop 22.61%. The correction following the Dot Com bust and 9/11 was severe as was the market decline in the wake of the 2008 financial crises. The markets recovered nicely in all cases and even with Friday’s declines the S&P 500 is about three times higher than it was at the depths of the market in March of 2009.

A good time to do nothing 

While everyone’s situation is different, the vast majority of investors would be wise to do nothing in the wake of these market declines. Panicking and withdrawing money from your accounts may feel good now, but you’ll likely regret it down the road.

Investors nearing retirement who sold their equity holdings near the depths of the financial crises in late 2008 or early 2009 realized large losses, then sat on the sidelines during some or all of the ensuing market recovery. Their retirement dreams are in shambles because they panicked.

Some strategies to consider 

Once the dust settles a bit, here are a few things you might consider:

Rebalancing your portfolio. Especially if the markets continue their downward trend for a few more days or weeks it is likely that your portfolio will become underweight in equities. This is a good time to rebalance back to your target asset allocation. Rebalancing forces a level of discipline on investors, in this case buying when equities have fallen.

Tax-loss selling. In the course of rebalancing and reviewing your portfolio, you may have some holdings in your taxable account that have dropped below their cost basis. Look to sell some of them to realize the loss. Be sure to understand the wash-sale rules if you intend to buy these holdings back. Above all ensure that any asset sales make good investment sense, as the saying goes “…don’t let the tax tail wag the investment dog…”

Recharacterize a Roth conversion. If you have converted traditional IRA dollars to a Roth IRA and the value of these converted dollars has fallen you are entitled to a do-over or recharacterization. You generally have until October 15 of the year following the year in which the conversion took place. The assets that are recharacterized cannot immediately be converted back to a Roth, there is generally at least a 30 day waiting period. In other words if you did a conversion in 2015 you would have until October 15, 2016 (or the latest tax filing date including extensions).

If the value of the assets that you converted has fallen appreciably, there can be significant tax savings to be realized here. These rules are complex so be sure that you know what you are doing or that you seek the advice of a knowledgeable tax or financial advisor.

The Bottom Line 

Event-driven market declines such as we’ve seen (and may continue to see) via the Brexit vote are often swift and severe in nature. For most investors the best course of action is no action. Once the dust has settled a bit review your portfolio and make adjustments and tweaks that make sense in a thoughtful, controlled fashion.

Please contact me with any thoughts or suggestions about anything you’ve read here at The Chicago Financial Planner. Don’t miss any future posts, please subscribe via email. Please check out our resources page as well.  

 

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Comments

  1. Hi Roger,

    Thanks for the article.

    I think Brexit is a great opportunity where the global market take a break, and possibility will decline.

    The Pound Sterling so low is a great opportunity to step in and buy UK assets.

    I wrote about my strategy Brexit strategy on my blog, would be great have your opinion.

    Keep up the good work.

    • Roger Wohlner says:

      Rudy thanks for the comment. I will check out the post on your site when I have a chance, thanks for calling it to my attention.

  2. Hi Roger,

    I appreciate your work . I love the strategies part most. It would be very beneficial for every Investor. Looking for some further posts.

    Thanks.

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