It’s Super Bowl time and once again my beloved Packers are not playing. At least they beat the hated Bears to make the playoffs. Every year the Super Bowl Indicator is resurrected as a forecasting tool for the stock market.
This indicator says that a win by a team from the old pre-merger NFL is bullish for the stock market, while a win by a team from the old AFL is a bad sign for the markets. Looking at this year’s game, Denver is an original AFL team while Seattle is neither. The Seahawks came into existence in the 1970s (post-merger) first as an NFC team, then moved to the AFC, and are now back in the NFC. To me this disqualifies them from this “scientific” prognostication tool but what do I know?
According to a recent Wall Street Journal article the indicator seems to work around 70% of the time mostly because old NFL teams (which include the Steelers, Colts, and Ravens) have won a majority of the time (there is a 70% probability of this according to the WSJ article). A notable exception occurred when the Broncos won in 1998 and 1999 and the stock market went up both years.
What should you do?
My suggestion is to enjoy the game, the halftime show, the commercials, and eat plenty of unhealthy food.
As far as your investments, I think you’ll agree that the outcome of the game should not dictate your strategy. Rather I suggest an investment strategy that incorporates some basic blocking and tackling:
- A financial plan should be the basis of your strategy. Any investment strategy that does not incorporate your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance is a bit flawed.
- Take stock of where you are. Have the strong stock market of 2013 and the almost five year rally since March of 2009 caused your portfolio to be over weight in equities? If so perhaps it’s time to rebalance.
- Costs matter. Low cost index mutual funds and ETFs can be great core holdings. Solid, well-managed active funds can also contribute to a well-diversified portfolio. In all cases make sure you are in the lowest cost share classes available to you.
- View all accounts as part of a total portfolio. This means IRAs, your 401(k), taxable accounts, mutual funds, individual stocks and bonds, etc. Each individual holding should serve a purpose in terms of your overall strategy.
As far as the game, it should be a good one. I suspect we will root for Seattle only because of Pete Carroll (we are USC fans and the proud parents of a 2010 USC grad). On the other hand how can you not like Peyton Manning?
How has the Super Bowl Indicator done?
Going back to the game played in 2000 (following the 1999 season) the Super Bowl Indicator has been right 8 times, wrong 5 times, with one that I would call not applicable. The 2003 game saw Tampa Bay an NFC team that came into existence post-merger won and the market (defined as the S&P 500 for this analysis) did go up so I will leave it to you be the judge on this one.
Notable misses during this time period:
- St. Louis (an old NFL team) won in 2000 and the market dropped.
- Baltimore (an old NFL team that was formerly the original Cleveland Browns) won in 2001 and the market dropped.
- The New York Giants (an old NFL team) won in 2008 and the market tanked in what was the start of the recent financial crisis.
The Super Bowl Indicator is another fun piece of Super Bowl hype. Your investment strategy should be guided by a financial plan, not the outcome of a football game.
Please feel free to contact me with your questions.
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